One and Done

Well, we were able to sneak in another mild day across southern New England today, however, it was tough to enjoy the full potential of those middle to upper 50s thanks to the wind.  It was certainly a “hold onto your hat” type day as westerly breezes gusted past 40mph at times.  The temps in the 50s once again are a one day fling as colder air is en route.

The wind slowly subsides tonight, allowing for a breezy evening, but lighter winds after midnight.  The wind direction starts to turn to the northwest, usher in some of the colder air that lurks north of us now. That’ll provide a cooler Sunday with temps in the upper 30s on average despite some sunshine.  We’ll have an active northwest breeze too, just not as strong as today’s gusty wind.

The core of the cold settles in overnight Sunday as Monday morning starts in the single digits and lower teens, only to warm into the middle to upper 20s in the afternoon.  That’s despite the strong late March sun angle!  An impressive feat for this time of year. 

So the cold air is squarely in place early to mid next week, the big question is, what about the snow and wind chance for late Tuesday, Tuesday night and Wednesday morning?

We know there’s going to be plenty of cold air to support snow, and we also know there will be a powerful ocean storm that rapidly strengthens as it moves off the Carolina coastline and moves northeast.  What we don’t know for sure right now is that exact track of the powerful ocean storm. An early look at a plausible solution favors a position just outside the “benchmark” which would keep the core heaviest snow and most powerful winds just offshore, aside from perhaps far Southeast Mass/Cape/Islands.  Still, some snow and wind will reach inland communities if this is indeed the set-up, but it wouldn’t be a blockbuster.  In terms of being specific on numbers for snow and wind…  it’s too early.  

Why is it too early? A track 100 miles to the west implies a full blown Nor’easter for most of us, and a track 100 miles farther east means minimal snow and wind amounts. A shift of that magnitude, 75-100 miles, 3+ days out in the weather world is common, so I’m not throwing all my forecast eggs in one basket at this point. Bottom line, we’ll keep an eye on the late Tuesday to Wednesday morning time frame for the snow and wind potential and give it another day for confidence in the forecast to go up before we iron out more details.

In the meantime, enjoy the rest of the weekend!

@clamberton7- twitter