Summer to Storms to Fall

Hopefully you were able to enjoy the “that’s more like it” weather of today!  With highs in the upper 70s to around 80°, it was the perfect way to enjoy the unofficial end to summer.  But Mother Nature didn’t get the memo that “summer is over” because tomorrow is another warm day, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.  Maybe another beach day, if you can swing it!  But it’s also breezy and muggy.  A front will be moving in from the NW late in the day, and this will spawn showers and storms to the NW between 2-10pm.  Some of those storms could prove to be strong or even severe – but that threat is more likely in the interior.  With those stronger storms, the greatest threats are downpours (possible flash flooding), and damaging winds.  Of course will be tracking this, but it does look likely that as the sun goes down 7:11pm, the front will lose steam and may fall apart before reaching 495.  So, the Fenway forecast looks pretty decent for tomorrow evening:

That front that we’ll be tracking tomorrow evening doesn’t really sweep through.  In fact, it sort of “stalls out” over us for a bit… bringing periods of rain through Wednesday and even into the first half of Thursday.  This round of unsettled weather also has the potential to include some SOAKERS – so we’ll be watching for the potential for flash flooding.  Now, I’m already a step ahead of you and I know what you’re thinking:  “What about the big game on Thrusday?!”  ThursDAY does look very wet (so tailgaters be prepared) – but we will likely be able to dry things out for game time.  Still, it’ll be cool enough for an extra layer:

Friday through the end of the week look very “fall-like.”  Perhaps apple-picking would be a great weekend activity for the family.  (See 7on7 Forecast posted at the top of this blog)

Tracking Hurricane Irma:

***  8AM Advisory:

Irma is still gaining strength today as it moves west toward the Leeward Islands.  At the 5pm update, max winds were at 130mph.  Then at the 8pm update, up to 140mph.  Hurricane Warnings and Watches have been posted – with islands including St. Kitts, Antigua, Saint Martin – bracing for the wrath of Irma to arrive late tomorrow into early Wednesday.  Even if this system doesn’t make landfall (eye of the storm moving over land) the devastating wind field is far reaching from the center, and there are also concerns for storm surge and rain impacts.  While it isn’t included in the forecast from the NHC, it’s still very possible that Irma becomes a Cat 5 at some point (winds 157mph+).  This is a POWERHOUSE storm – and there’s nothing to stop her.  As long as she’s fueled by warm water and doesn’t have any wind shear to pull her apart… Irma will continue to show her incredible strength.

I mentioned in previous blogs that there are a LOT of factors to be considered when deciding on a forecast track for a storm like Irma.  There are so may different forecast models, and so many different runs of each model… What we’re all looking for is CONSISTENCY and AGREEMENT among those trusted models.  We’re starting to see that happening – but it still needs to be noted that forecasts can change.  The NHC noted in a discussion today that 4-5 days out, there’s an average track error of 150 to 200 miles.  That’s why the track always includes the “cone of uncertainty,” to sort of provide a little “wiggle room” for the track.  Models since last night were showing a sharp turn to the North for Irma at the end of the week, which would take the powerful storm into S. Florida.  Now that this area is included in the “cone of uncertainty,” it is certainly time for Florida to prepare.  The time-frame of concern for Florida will be next weekend.  Of course we are ALL still watching Irma VERY closely.

As always, we’ll keep you posted.  – Breezy