Ask And You Shall (Finally) Receive

We’ve got something else to be thankful for this holiday weekend…there’s rain in the forecast for the coming week!  Lots of it!  And right in the areas that need it most!

Check out the latest drought monitor issued by the USDA and NOAA right before Thanksgiving…

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Notice the “extreme drought” conditions (bright red color) across much of the southeast US and parts of the northeast US.  Now check out the latest rainfall forecast from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) for the coming workweek…

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There are “bull’s-eyes” of rain right over many of the areas in the extreme drought.  It’d be tough to line up those two maps any better than they are.  In other words, the areas that need the most rain are almost exactly the same areas likely to receive the most rain over the next 5 days.  The WPC is predicting a total of 1-2″ over most of New England with a few areas getting over 3″ of rain.  In the southeast, the prediction is 3-5″ of rain across most of that area with a few spots getting even more.    Popular Alabama meteorologist James Spann called it “an answer to prayer[s]” on twitter.

How about the timing?  Admittedly, we are still working out the exact details.  However, it looks like the best chance for rain will be Tuesday afternoon and evening with the first storm system.  There will be some slightly drier weather for most of Wednesday before another round of rain arrives Wednesday night into early Thursday with a second storm system.  Gusty winds will likely accompany the heaviest rain showers.

Each storm system will include both a warm front (red line) and a cool front (blue line).  That makes the temperature forecast a bit tricky.  As you can probably guess, depending on which side of the front you are on, it’s either going to be warm or cool.

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Either way, and most importantly, temperatures will be well above freezing so this will be an all rain event.  Otherwise we would be measuring the snow with a yardstick.  Right now we’ve got 50s in the forecast for Tue-Thu, but full disclosure…anything from the 40s to the 60s will be possible.

In the meantime, it will certainly be chilly.  The winds calm down overnight but it will be cold, even without the wind.  Boston and the Cape will drop to right around the freezing mark but most of the interior suburbs will drop well down into the 20s.

So it will be a cold start to the day on Monday.  High temperatures will only reach the mid 40s despite plenty of sunshine Monday afternoon.

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