The state of Florida is about to experience its first landfalling hurricane since Wilma in 2005—-quite a drought, or run of luck, that is about to end. It appears Hermine will make landfall near Apalachicola later this evening as a Category 1 Hurricane. A rough night for them with heavy rain, a 4-9 foot storm surge, high winds as well as tropical tornadoes.
The thinking behind her forecast track has changed little in 24 hours—still expected to move through GA,SC,NC the next 2 days then emerge off the Carolina beaches early Saturday afternoon as a Tropical Storm. From there, the forecast is still challenging as high pressure will be draped across northern New England throughout the Holiday Weekend and this area of High Pressure still looks like it will block the northward motion of Hermine, likely sparing New England a direct hit. Shown below is a map of various computer models still in general agreement of Hermine not passing through New England.
It’s how much does the High Pressure block the storm that is the question for us. As of now I still think some of Hermine’s rain & wind will find its way to New England–especially Sunday evening-Monday. South of the MA Pike is more likely to feel this effects than north and the effects would be rain totals 2″ ( or less) and wind gusts 40mph (or less)—similar to how an early fall nor’easter would treat us than a hurricane. Also, we catch the monthly tide cycles at a low point so only minor coastal flooding would be an issue for Nantucket as well as the Rhode Island coast.
As for Holiday Weekend plans—keep ’em–especially tomorrow and Saturday as we have some outstanding weather on tap—sunny skies, low humidity & seasonable temps. Sunday & Monday the risk is there for some rain & wind (detailed above) but that could change as Hermine’s track is not locked. Stay tuned.
~JR