Hermine In Focus

A few scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm rumble through today, but not all towns get hit and by the afternoon, many towns away from SE Mass will have dry weather and some sun breaking on through.  Across the south coast of New England, an isolated shower is still possible through the afternoon.

High pressure builds in Friday and Saturday allowing for a fantastic start to the weekend Saturday, with mostly sunny skies and comfortable temps and humidity. The question thereafter:  How strong is that high and how far north does Hermine come up the coast.

Hermine, as of 5am this morning, is located in the Gulf of Mexico, with winds of 60mph.  It’s expected to track northeast, making landfall tonight near the big bend of Florida as a category 1 hurricane. There after, it’ll track through Georgia and the Carolinas, emerging off the Carolina coastline over the weekend. As the high over us and the ridge over the Atlantic to our east builds, Hermine’s path out to sea becomes blocked and will likely stall/wobble around just south of New England and just off the mid-Atlantic coast.

How far north it comes before stalling is important to how much rain and wind we get.  Right now the best chance of rain moves in late Sunday and Monday. The breeze picks up too Sunday/Monday, out of the northeast at 15-25mph with higher gusts, especially across Southeast Mass. While it’s unlikely that we get a direct hit (center of the storm) coming over New England, a close pass to New England would bring in stronger wind gusts (especially for the Cape/Islands) and heavier rain. Regardless of exact track, rip currents and rough surf are likely across the area, especially the south facing beaches of New England. Even some beach erosion there is possible. The strongest winds, highest surf/beach erosion and coastal flooding seems to be much more of an issue for  south facing Long Island, NJ and portions of the mid-Atlantic.

That’s the way it stands as of now, just remember, in looking at that forecast “cone”, there’s a lot of wiggle room for the track to change for better or worse then next few days… we’ll keep you updated!

@clamberton7 – twitter