No more procrastinating. I can’t put this off any longer… It’s time to get rolling… on WINTER – er, wait a minute – I mean my blog about winter weather. The 7-day forecast is looking very “wintry” for the time being, but we’ll just have to take this one day at a time.
First off – Tonight we can’t forget to “spring forward” an hour with the clocks, as Daylight Saving Time begins at 2am. We wouldn’t want you to be late for church, Sunday brunch, or #7News Today in New England from 8am-11am. :c) #shamelessplug This is also a good reminder to check the smoke alarms and carbon monoxide monitors around the house. A good “re-set” for all of us, despite the hour of sleep we lose.
Did you notice the bitterly cold weekend we’re having once again? Much like last weekend, and we did set a new record “minimum high temp” for a few spots, one being Worcester with 16° as a high today. That beats the old record “cold” high temp of 19° set back in 1948. We could be in for record lows overnight/early tomorrow morning as well. Here’s a look at the forecast vs. current records:
We also have a breeze sticking around with us into the overnight hours. With clear skies, temps will drop into the single digits and for the coldest spots (especially the higher terrain, like the Worcester Hills) wind chill indices could get down to -10 to -20°. A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect for central and N. Worcester County through 11am tomorrow:
Sunshine is with us for Sunday (how apropos!) but it’s still very chilly. Again, starting in the single digits and topping out in the low to mid 20s. Fresh snowpack isn’t helping us with our cause – as it has a high albedo, or reflectivity, that just sends those warming sun rays right back out into space. Monday is a little better with partly cloudy skies and highs around 30°. Still, more than 10° below normal, and not cooking away any of the snow that we currently have in place. Monday is the “cold before the storm.”
You’re really reading this blog either A) for my often clever use of GIFS 
– or B) because you want to know what’s up with TUESDAY. We’ll just get straight into the details: This is a Tuesday storm – for the most part. I’d say a rough estimate of start time will be around 7am, and the event will calm down by midnight. However, we may still have some lingering snow showers and windy conditions to start Wednesday. The BRUNT of this nor’easter is a Tuesday special.
As I have mentioned several times today – forecast models are wobbling the track of this low all over the place with each update. It’s really difficult to find a good consistency or contingency and get a “lock” on the track. The track is KEY. We have to nail that part down before we can get to specifics of how much snow? Where? How strong will the winds be? When? etc. We do have a good idea on what this system is capable of – and it does look like a very good possibility that it is a significant storm… but the devil (now) is in the details. Plan on this:
- Strong NE wind component with damaging wind gusts a good likelihood, especially for the coastline, Cape and islands.
- Coastal concerns, as this storm arrives along with high astronomical tides (I mentioned the almost-full moon earlier). Watching the Tuesday afternoon high tide (around 1:30pm) and the early morning Wednesday high tide (1:45am).
- Significant snow. I think it’s a lock to say we see a widespread 6″ of snow… which is the thinking of the NWS too, as they have posted weather headlines (see picture below). I think it’s a VERY good possibility we see a widespread 10-16″ of snow. I think it’s also a possibility that we get some heavier meso-scale bands that set up (not sure where exactly) that could amount to closer to 20″ of snow.
- Possible “mix” for a time across the Cape and islands. That would mean more of a wet/heavy snow (sleet mixed in). For the rest of us, temps are cold and we’re talking “fluff-factor” here.
Winter Storm Watch area is all across New England, with the confidence for at least 6″ of snow. The Blizzard Watch is for Boston down through Plymouth County and the South Coast of New England. Both of these watches go into effect late Monday night through late Tuesday night. Remember, “blizzard” takes into account BLOWING snow – not just snow – that reduces visibility to 1/4 or less for at least 3 consecutive hours.
I got the good question on Twitter tonight: “What’s worse, a watch or a warning?” A “watch” means, “we’re watching out for this potential.” A “warning” means, “it’s happening or is about to happen.” We’re still a few days out from this event, so we still have many forecast model runs to sift through to find a good solution. It’s also important to remember that we can’t see the future until it’s the present. My personal philosophy is “prepare for the worst and hope for the best.” As always, we’ll keep you posted with every update and we’ll weather this together. And please remind your friends/family/internet trolls that you know of – We are just the messengers. We do our best to give you the most accurate information. We don’t control the weather. We just report the weather. I don’t do “magic.” I just do science. :c) Enjoy the rest of your weekend! – Breezy