Quiet here as Matthew churns and reloads for the Bahamas late tonight & tomorrow. The latest official forecast track has Matthew right up along the east coast of Florida late tomorrow night through Friday afternoon. Heavy rain, strong winds & storm surge likely along the east coast of Florida–basically along the I-95 corridor from Miami to Jacksonville. From there it heads northeast along the Georgia/South Carolina coastline Friday-Friday Night and then……it stops. The storm won’t make any advance on New England due to High Pressure blocking the northward advancement. A few people hacve asked how can such a powerful storm be blocked? Legit question but there are other stones in the atmospheric river as well and they are just as formidable (and more)…
This map shows what’s happening. That cool colored blob just east of Florida is Hurricane Matthew (the other cool blob east of that is actually Tropical Storm Nicole). Meanwhile, farther north all those warm colors show a massive area of High Pressure centered near Cleveland. That is one massive area of High Pressure—even bigger than a category 3 Hurricane–those are some serious stones in the river! In this case, High pressure wins (similar to what happened with Hurricane Hermine back on the Labor Day Holiday Weekend).
That area of High Pressure locks in the sunshine for the next several days, including the Holiday Weekend. The only issue is a cool front that will race through New England Saturday evening. This front may actually try & steal some rain from Matthew. Check out this sequence of maps from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning:
In the first panel (reading from L to R) you see the hurricane near SC/NC border as well as a cool front near Buffalo. That front siphons some moisture from Matthew and then in panel 2 you can see a few showers moving through New England midnight Saturday night. By early Sunday morning (panel 3) the showers are gone and the connection between the hurricane & the cool front broken. Plan on a few showers with less than .50″ of rain likely.
Should be a great weekend for fall foliage:
Enjoy!
~JR