Trying to Predict the Future

Sometimes I wake up and look outside and think, “Darn… I blew the forecast.  I should’ve done better.”  I had this kind of morning today but I don’t mind saying “oops!” when the weather turns out BETTER than my forecast!  I really feel like that’s what happened today.  We enjoyed a lot more sunshine today than I expected last night!!  In fact, I even got a bit of a tan while I was out on my run.  It was GLORIOUS to have proof that the sun still shines each day, even if we don’t see it.  So, on days like today – I’m okay with being a little bit off with my forecast.  No one is perfect or right 100% of the time – especially in a business where it’s our job to PREDICT THE FUTURE.  That’s a tough job!  :c)  I also will give myself credit here:  I nailed the temps in my forecast last night, as well as the scattered showers and downpours west of 495.  So, I give myself an approval rating of 80% for today.  More credit goes to Mother Nature, of course.

Scattered showers/storms and downpours will stay in central and western Massachusetts through this evening, then diminish.  Some of those downpours have been impressive; there was a report out of Warren of a quick 1.7″!  Very localized, though.  Into the overnight, expect mostly cloudy skies and patchy fog.  Now, I would argue that “Tuesday’s” are more difficult than “Monday’s” and tomorrow morning you may feel that way too.  We will wake up to a bit of gloom and even some light showers or drizzle.  Don’t let it get you down!  The sun will return late in the day, and then we get to keep it around through the end of the week!

My pick days of this week are Thursday and Friday.  Should be “fall at its best!”  Looks like highs in the low to mid 70s, under mostly sunny skies.  Apple-pickin’ weather, indeed.

What you really want to know about though, is Hurricane Matthew.  This storm means business.  Not much change in its current stats:  As of the 5pm update, still a Cat 4 with 140mph winds moving slowly (5-7mph) to the north.  Jamaica and Haiti are already feeling the impacts, and it’s only going to get worse.  This storm will be horrific and catastrophic for Haiti and eastern Cuba.  Some of those impacts:  Hurricane-force winds within 35 miles of the eye of the storm, flash flooding and mudslides, Haiti could see 15-25″ of rainfall with locally 40″!  I can’t even begin to fathom that amount of RAIN.  Right now, I’m worried less about preparations in New England for potential impacts – and MORE worried about “HOW can we HELP.”

The 5pm updated forecast from the NHC is ominous.  The track has shifted west and includes the SE US Coastline in the “Cone of Uncertainty.”  Remember, this “cone” outlined in white is not a swath/area that the storm will impact, but rather an indication that the track of the storm could end up anywhere within those white lines.  Matthew is still expected to be a Cat 2 by the time it reaches the Carolinas.  What happens after that??  Still BIG “?????”  We all need to keep a watchful eye on every update that becomes available, and please keep in mind:  It’s not easy to predict the future – especially after 4-5 days out.  It’s still on the table that this powerful storm makes its way to us in New England… but it’s also still on the table that it goes out to sea next weekend.  We’ll be watching, and we’ll keep you posted.


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