Wanted: Rain & Cooler Temps…Some Early Thoughts On Winter

Our warm, dry fall rolls on this evening. yet another day with above normal temps. As noted in last night’s blog, more of the same for the next several days. Sunshine on tap with a warming trend for the weekend:

Some great weather for all sorts of outdoor activities including Golf, Hiking, viewing/raking leaves, Head of the Charles and even apple picking:

The only knock I have on this pattern is a continuation of the dryness…..it has become quite dry across the region the past several weeks and because of that we have fallen back into drought conditions across the region:

Thankfully, it’s not as severe as last fall but drought is drought. It does look like we do have a decent chance of rain by the middle of next week:

Those raindrops are tied to a cold front and if it does move slow enough we may be able to pick up some beneficial rains…more on that by early next week!

Some have asked Does this warm fall mean a mild, snowless winter?! Short answer: Nope. There is some correlation of a warm November meaning a mild and limited snow winter but until we get there (November) it is a bit early to chat specific winter patterns. The upcoming winter does look to be a La Nina winter and for North America, that usually looks like this:

I realize you’re looking at that map & thinking..”Wow..near normal temps & near normal snow–hot take right there JR“…haha, that’s fair. There are a couple of other factors that will affect the winter pattern..Greenland Blocking as well as the strength of High Pressure near Florida (winter trips to FL should be sunny and warm btw!). Some early thoughts:
* Overall, a milder than normal winter but likely a few bouts of cold lasting days, perhaps weeks
* Stormy pattern….and with the jet stream right across New England, those storms are likely to be messy mix storms (La Nina winters do increase the risk of ice storms for the northeast)
* Lots of sunsets before 7pm. Lots of them.

More on the upcoming winter in the weeks ahead.
~JR