Let me guess what you’re thinking…”I know we need the rain Rob, but I’ve got tickets to the Pats game?!?” I’m jealous! Or, maybe it’s “I really want to see the Sox sweep the Yanks!” I’d love to see that too! Whatever your plans are, do NOT cancel them!
We’ve got spotty showers in the forecast but they will be just that…spotty! In other words, very hit or miss. Sunday will NOT be a washout. There is only about a 20% chance of rain in Foxborough this afternoon. The chance of rain does increase this evening, but we are still only talking about a 40% chance for the Sox game. If I had to guess, there might be a brief rain delay at some point, but the Sox will still finish the sweep of the Yanks tonight (hopefully, that depends on more than just the weather). There is some fine point in this forecast though that we have to read. The chance for thunderstorms is very low. For the most part we are expecting only rain showers. However, IF any thunderstorms do form, they will be able to tap into a very moist, unstable atmosphere and will have the opportunity to grow into strong storms. The odds of that are slim, but not zero. So, just to reiterate…don’t cancel your plans, but keep an eye on the radar and be prepared just in case.
The chance for rain goes up to about 70% late tonight into early Monday afternoon. The question remains, “how much rain will we get?!?” Yesterday I was hopeful that we would get around 1″ in many areas. Today I am less hopeful. Why?!? Because Julia refuses to go down without a fight! Yesterday at this time, Tropical Depression Julia looked like it had only hours left to live and we were already dividing up its possessions. In other words, we were hoping that the remnants would get absorbed into a cold front that is heading this way. But the headline from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) this morning was “surprisingly, Julia is attempting a comeback.” Not only did Julia survive the night as a tropical depression, it was looking considerably healthier this morning than it has looked in days!
That’s not good news for anyone on the east coast. First, it means the Carolinas have to keep an eye on a tropical cyclone lingering right off of the coast for a few days. The NHC admits this is a tricky forecast and they have tentatively tasked the Hurricane Hunters to fly into Julia tomorrow afternoon to get some more clues. Second, if Julia holds together as a tropical cyclone, it means that moisture won’t be available to us. Consequently, most of our computer models reduced the rain forecast for us. Still, I remain hopeful that many of us will get around .5″ of rain on Monday. Expect slightly less than that for the Cape and the Islands but more in western MA. And 1″ still isn’t out of the question, it just now seems like a stretch.
After Monday the chance for additional rain this week is slim to none. Some clouds may linger into Tuesday morning but after that skies will be generally clear for the rest of the work week. Temperatures will also be on the warm side for this time of year…upper 70s to low 80s through Friday. Low 70s would be about average for mid to late September.
A weak front brings us a very slight chance for rain Friday night and then some more fall-like temperatures for next weekend.