In the last six presidential elections, the candidate chosen by Florida voters won the White House — and an exclusive 7News/Emerson poll shows Joe Biden leading in the Sunshine State heading into Tuesday’s election.

The poll of likely voters shows Biden leading President Donald Trump by six points, 51 percent to 45 percent.

“The thought is, really no Republican can win the nomination without winning Florida, which is why some folks believe Donald Trump left his home base in New York for Florida after the 2016 election to help secure that vote” said Spencer Kimball of Emerson College polling.

The pandemic is a big concern for Florida voters and most of them don’t seem to feel the same way about the coronavirus as the president.

The 7News/Emerson College poll shows 79 percent of Florida voters consider the coronavirus a major or moderate threat to public health and just 21 percent consider Covid-19 a minor threat or none at all.

“As we’ve seen an increase in cases — especially in Florida — voters have increased their anxiety of the virus. And because of it, I believe Trump’s handling of the virus is not seen as a very positive and so it looks like voters may go for Joe and say ‘let’s take a different approach,” Kimball said.

Thirty-six percent of Florida voters polled said the economy is the most important issue for them, while 24 percent picked the coronavirus and 11 percent said social justice is their top concern.

Trump’s gender gap may be another trouble spot. Women polled favored Biden by almost 20 points, 59 percent to 40 percent. Trump’s edge with men is 52 percent to 41 percent. Seniors are also supporting Biden, leading voters over 65 by 53 percent to 45 percent.

“In 2016 he rode that vote to victory. This time it looks like that older voter – who is more impacted by the pandemic than other age groups seems to have really turned on the president, particularly independent older voters,” Kimball said.

And the poll shows 83 percent of Florida Republicans supporting Trump while 88 percent of the state’s Democrats are supporting Biden, possibly showing a change in the so-called “enthusiasm gap.”
“If I’m the Trump campaign, I’m trying to get out my final vote knowing a strong election push is what put me over the top in 2016,” Kimball said. “if I’m the other side, Joe Biden has put together a strong coalition of support … if he can hold that coalition together for a few more days that might put him over the top in what most people consider to be a key swing state in Florida.”

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