Warm air flooded the Northeast today. Despite rain, the temperatures soared. (See right.) It wasn’t just warm here, either. Places like Burlington, Vermont with their high of 67, and (funky, cold) Massena, NY with a reading of 70 saw records fall.
And we still have another mild one tomorrow. I’m expecting a few rays of sun and highs again near 60 area wide. Considering there’s no cold front to chill us down, it’s ‘stay the course’ for now.
That’s not the read from the next storm, however. Although the track has become more definitive, the forecasts for Southern New England are all over the place! In this day of social media, everyone has a snowfall map and a different take. I’m not pooh-poohing it, I’m just saying I’m another voice out there. So, in that spirit, let me bend your ear.
Essentially, the pre-storm setup is shaping the outcome of the storm. We’re warm, the wind initially blows from the northeast (off of ocean water that’s 50 deg.), the changeover is slow and the storm zips away quickly overnight Wednesday. Immediately my takeaway was, “this isn’t a big storm.” Much of the time during the height of the storm will be to cool the air and get the snow to stick. For snow-lovers, this is what’s known as “wasted time”. For plow folks, this is “hurry up and wait” time. For the rest of us, this is “still can get out of town” time. That’s much of Wednesday from mid morning through mid afternoon.
As the sun goes down (another key point) the air continues to cool and the snow closes in on the coast. From early eve until midnight when we see the lion’s share of the accumulation shown here:
I might be a little heavy-handed with the top range of the 4-8 and the 2-4. Most of us in the shading of dark blue will be 4-6. Most of us in the shading of light blue will be 1-3″. And that coating to 1″ is just that: snowshowers at the tail end of the storm Wed. night. Enough said? Yeah, that about covers it.
What’s not shown on the map is the freezeover potential. That is a big deal on the wet roads late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. Even without a coating of snow, I expect temps to plummet to sub freezing by sunup on Thanksgiving morning. Watch out Turkey Trotters!
Rest of the holiday weekend is quiet. Cold both Friday and Saturday with a moderation by Sunday. 50s again within reach…both near and far. Signs point to some more mild air possibly late next week.