This time of year, it seems we’re either teetering on summer or wading in fall. First 15 days of September last year had us in the 80s and 90s – including one 97° day on the 11th. Then in the final 15, we crumbled right into the low 60s to finish the month slightly below normal. Opposite was true in 2011, where the second half of the month was sizzling.
How will the second half of September fare this year? Well, we’re trending toward cool now, but there are signs we could see some warmth soon, and maybe in the long range too.
Now if you’re trying to read into the winter forecast with this look back and forward, don’t. Unfortunately, this month’s weather won’t give us any dirt on the winter forecast. We’ll have to wait until late October and November to start reading the tea leaves, and even then, it’s only suppositions and speculation.
Better off watching the weather this week. Which has few challenges and plenty of bright days. Simply put, tomorrow is our best chance for wet weather: showers greet us first thing tomorrow, then we’ll have brightening in the afternoon. Sharp fall in the temperatures by Friday only to recover to near summer levels by the weekend.
With some wet weather on Saturday, a few lightweight showers tomorrow, and a lower sun angle, soil moisture is getting a bit of recharge and lawns/gardens may start to partially recover. However, we’re still in a deepening long term dry spell, and groundwater remains low. Doesn’t appear that any appreciable rain will fall in the days ahead, so expect this map (with yellow in ‘abnormally dry conditions’) to show little change by late week:
Pete