If the Iowa Caucuses were the Olympics, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders looks like he’s going to win the gold medal; former Vice President Joe Biden the silver; and there’s going to be a fight-to-the finish for the bronze.
In our exclusive 7News/Emerson College poll, Sanders and Biden are the only candidates with more than 20% support.
Bernie Sanders is in front with 28%; while Joe Biden is second with 21%.
“Bernie Sanders having a pretty strong lead here in Iowa, really coming out as the expected nominee.
Joe Biden is trying. He’s the frontrunner, at least nationally.
“If he was to drop to fourth or fifth that might create some alarm bells in the Biden camp,” said Emerson College Polling director, Spencer Kimball.
Three Democrats are in a tight battle for third place.
Former Southbend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg has 15%; Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren 14%, and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, 11%.
‘I think Elizabeth Warren still knows she has New Hampshire to fight in. Buttigieg and Klobuchar have a little bit more of a battle between the two of them, as they’re actually trying to get the same type of moderate vote,” said Kimball.
No one else is close. Entrepreneur Andrew Yang has 5%; billionaire businessman Tom Steyer 4%; Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard and Colorado Senator Michael Bennet both get 1; and former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick zero.
Our poll was conducted by Professor Spencer Kimball, director of polling at Emerson College, which have been nationally recognized for their accuracy.
Under Iowa Caucus rules, voters who support candidates who don’t win 15% at the caucus they attend may then switch and support their second choice.
Our poll shows which candidates would gain the most in a second round of voting:
When we asked who would be your second choice? Elizabeth Warren leads with 24%; Amy Klobuchar is second, with 19; Pete Buttigieg third, at 17. Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden both earned 16%.
“What we saw for Elizabeth Warren, her voters–about 50%–are breaking to Bernie Sanders if she doesn’t make viability. On the other side–Klobuchar and Buttigieg–they’re breaking towards Biden so we’ll see in each of these games where those votes go if their candidates don’t make it.”
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