We could start this blog with what has become my daily diatribe on the drought. And its affect on the foliage. And how long it’s been since we’ve seen a decent rain. And how much our rainfall comes in fits and starts these days…

…but this time around, I’m wondering how we’ll be shutting off the faucet in the days ahead.

It appears a deluge is on order. Maybe on double or triple order depending on the variables that come into play. 

It all starts with a simple front, gently swinging in from the Great Lakes. This front seemed like all the others that came from this direction all summer – disappointingly dry with a slight drop in temperatures.

However, this time around, the landscape is different. At least two distinct atmospheric rivers are at play in the next 3-5 days off the Eastern Seaboard, and the way they are fed into our front and New England in general will be a huge player in the timing and intensity of the rain. From what we’re seeing on our weather maps, we’ll be measuring the 4-5 day in inches…just like a snowstorm.

But unlike a snowstorm, we won’t be plowing this time around…we’ll be bailing. Too much of a good thing falling in too short of a time span: unfortunately, most of the water will be lost to runoff. In addition, the winds will kick up along the coast and keep going through the weekend, possibly causing coastal flooding and certainly eroding the waterfront. And what’s initially a warm spell (today/tomorrow) turns cold and raw later in the week as we get on the other side of the front.

So much has to play out in the coming days, I’m just focusing on the first wave of rain with the front on Wednesday and leaving the rest. The first wave alone could produce 2-4 of rain! Longer range, confidence is very low from Thursday to Sunday. Proceed with caution.

One of our biggest wildcards/headaches is the formation of tropical depression off the Carolinas that may become Tropical Storm Joaquin. His presence alone confounds the weather models and clouds the forecast. Will he interact with our front? Will he strike us directly? How strong will he be? 

So many questions, so few answers.

Settle in for a bumpy ride. And get the sandbags ready.


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