Tropical air all around. Tropical storm off the Eastern Seaboard. Cool air trying to barge in tomorrow. The jet stream doing crazy loops across the lower 48. Care to step into my shoes and take a stab at the forecast?
As humans, we marvel in the atmosphere, but as meteorologists, we curse it for its indifference to following a linear path to the forecast. However, by definition, the atmosphere never behaves in a linear way, and so the issue is obvious.
For starters, take a look at the jet stream in the first map on the right. Say you dropped a feather in the Gulf of Alaska. Which path will it take to the Atlantic? (Follow the arrows.) As you can see, there’s a great many ways to the East Coast. Instead of a feather, think of a bundle of energy that rides in the jet stream. A bundle that has the effect of actually altering the jet stream as it moves through it.
Now try and make a forecast.
That’s exactly what our weather models are attempting to do right now – with regards to the placement of the heavy rain and the movement of Tropical Storm Joaquin. The more kinks and squiggly lines on that weather map, the more confusion (and outcomes) you put in the forecast.
So in times like these, it’s wise to define what you know and keep your mindset in the short range (2-3 day) period. Anything else is pure speculation…which is why I’m tabling Joaquin for the time being and focusing on the rain tonight and tomorrow.
What we do know is an intense band of rain circulating around a low pressure system currently in West Virginia will attach itself to a front overnight. Once locked on, it will pass to our north tomorrow, focusing the highest rainfall in Central Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. Have we dodged a bullet in Southern New England? Quite possibly. Our neighbors to the north are in a very unlucky spot with respect to this low pressure system and proximity to the front.
That’s not to say we’re in the clear with the heavy rain. We’ll definitely see some as we mill around in the humid air tonight and early tomorrow. Downpours will contribute to possible flash flooding (brief, intense rain), but widespread basement and stream flooding seems to be focused to our north.
As far as Joaquin is concerned, the National Hurricane Center believes it may become a hurricane by tomorrow, but the future track is highly uncertain thanks to what I described above.
What is certain – and also seemingly off topic – is the cool air that will be drawn into New England in the coming days. Highs only in the 50s with a persistent northeast wind will chill to the bone! This high pressure system to the north is also what may ultimately stave off Joaquin…but only time will tell.
More updates as necessary. I’ll see you on TV.
Pete