BOSTON (WHDH) - Political realities are likely the real reason Gov. Charlie Baker decided to pass on running for a third term in office, according to Spencer Kimball, director of polling at Emerson College.
“In the modern era, we don’t have any third-term governors. The closest would Michael Dukakis, who served non-consecutive terms. So, I think that’s the biggest obstacle, was that it would be difficult to win again,” Kimball said of Baker’s announcement.
Baker’s exit from the battle for governor leaves the 2022 race wide open.
Kimball says conservative Republican Geoff Diehl is the early favorite to replace Baker on the GOP ticket, while Attorney General Maura Healey has a good shot to return to the corner office to the Democratic party, if she decides to join the four Democrats who have already announced their candidacies.
“If Maura Healey chooses to run, I think she would be the nominee for the Democrats, and probably the prohibitive favorite going into the general election,” Kimball said.
Kimball added that Baker and Lt. Gov. Karyn Polito may not yet be done with political office, saying he would not be surprised if Polito ran for Congress and Baker considered a Senate run in 2024.
“The winds right now in the Republican party are blowing a little bit to the right for him I think,” Kimball said. “If he takes a little step back and see where things kind of fall in line over the next two to four years, he could certainly run for a statewide office here in Massachusetts.”
A number of Democrats have already announced their candidacies, including Harvard professor Danielle Allen, state Sen. Sonia Chang-Diaz and former state Sen. Ben Downing.
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