When Martha Coakley–with Hillary Clinton nearby–said, “we are in a dead heat… and I promise you, we are going to win the race,” last Thursday, likely voters were telling us she may not be able to keep that promise.

In our exclusive 7News/UMass Lowell poll, Charlie Baker is beating Coakley 45 percent to 41 percent– by four percentage points– with Evan Falchuck getting 3 percent, Jeff McCormick getting 2 percent, and Scott Lively with only 1 percent.

Baker is winning votes with his personality and his policies. Fifty-three percent of likely voters think Baker would do a better job on the economy; while 33 percent think Coakley would. Fifty percent say he’s more likeable, while 32 percent say she is. Finally, 47 percent believe Baker is more independent-minded, while 32 percent believe Coakley is.

By a wide margin– 42 to 29 percent, lively voters also think Baker has run a better campaign.

“He’s made the case among independents and moderates… he’s seen more favorably… he’s even cut down Coakley’s lead among women,” says Josh Dyck.

But Baker’s biggest boost may come from the voters’ desire to have more balance on Beacon Hill, which is dominated by Democrats. When asked which is better, one part control or divided, 65 percent of voters said divided between parties, while just 20 percent said the same political party.

“Even in a very democratic state, the right republican can win because voters don’t trust politicians of either party to control it all,” Dyck said.

If you ask—regardless of who you’re voting for— Who do you think will be the next Governor? 45 percent say Coakley; 43 percent say Baker; 12 percent don’t know or aren’t saying.

“The wildcard in this race is that 1 in 7 likely voters are either voting for an independent candidate or are still undecided,” said Dyck. “With a week to go, there are enough uncommitted voters for the campaigns to really make a difference.”

You can think as much as you want to that you know who’s going to win, but you don’t. No one on earth knows.


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