Hiller Instinct: 7News/UMass Lowell NH Senate poll

Jeanne Shaheen is running against two opponents in New Hampshire: Scott Brown, and the president–Barack Obama.

In our exclusive 7News/Umass Lowell survey, Shaheen is up on Brown by just three points–49 percent to 46 percent–among likely voters.

Shaheen would be up by more, but Brown has done a good job making voters look at her and see the very unpopular president.

How unpopular?

60 percent of likely voters we polled disapprove of the way he’s handling his job.

62 percent disapprove of the way he’s handled health care…

And 59 percent disapprove of how he’s handled the economy and international affairs.

Our pollster Dr Joshua Dyck says you’ve seen it before:

“Essentially, Brown is running the same campaign against Shaheen that Elizabeth Warren ran against him,” Dr. Dyck said.  “He’s making a state-wide race national.”
Still, Shaheen is holding on to a lead thanks to her personal appeal.

Her favorability is higher than Brown’s  (54-44 percent)…and her unfavorability is lower. (42-49 percent)
Worse for Brown, 51 percent say he doesn’t know enough about New Hampshire, echoing Shaheen’s charge he’s a carpetbagger.

Shaheen  is also beating Brown among women 56-39 percent, though he’s carrying men by a 53-41 margin.
“It’s always about timing,” Dr. Dyck said, “and this time the timing is bad for Sheehan, because she’s a Democrat.  If she wins, she’s going to do it on her own.”

And if you ask all New Hampshire voters whom they think will win, 59 percent say Shaheen…30 percent Scott Brown.

“Given the overall picture of national polling, if Shaheen loses this race, it’s a catastrophic election for the Democrats.”

For months, New Hampshire was seen as a sure win for Jeanne Shaheen, and Democrats didn’t worry about losing her seat to the Republicans.  Now, they do…And should.