With this recent stretch of warm weather, we erased that 4+ degree hole we dug for ourselves in the first week of the month. Yes, it’s been that significant. Or maybe it’s been that back and forth.

However you define it, the deed is done. And now we swing back to cooler temperatures. 

But if you’re looking for a deep freeze, wait until the weekend.

A deep mass of cold air will plunge into New England for a two day stand (Sun-Mon) before it relents and allows the warmth to flood back into New England. Like I said in last night’s blog, we need multiple shots of cool air to bring the temperature down and keep it there for a long-term cooldown. So far, the snowpack across Northern Canada is just getting established, so the cool shots of air are weak and ill-prepared to extend a prolonged cooling trend.

To the right you can see the snow cover on the 30th of September and more recently, the snow cover from yesterday. Note the significant southward progression over the Northern Provinces of Canada. It’s just a matter of time before that refrigerated air reaches us behind a sharp cold front.

That said, snow cover in of itself DOES NOT establish a weather pattern. It can reinforce the cold shots and create a positive feedback for cold, but by itself it cannot single-handedly alter the jet stream. Partner yes, catalyst, no. Something to think about as we head to the colder months.

In the meantime, October rolls on without any major storms brewing. Been awfully quiet lately…but there again, nothing to read into just yet.

Pete

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