A year ago this week I was in Munich, Germany visiting friends & taking in the culture, my German heritage attending Oktoberfest. This year my Oktoberfest has been sitting at a computer hitting refresh as the new computer models trickle in, deciding our fate with a Hurricane named Joaquin.

This morning that hurricane is way down in the Bahamas and drifting southwest. It’s that southwest drift that could save the entire east coast from a landfalling hurricane this weekend. The challenge we (as in the meteorological community) are having is …will the jet stream capture the hurricane & pull it up the east coast OR will the hurricane "escape" out to sea without the jet stream capturing it.

All along the European model (ECMWF) has said the hurricane will escape out to sea while the American Model (GFS) and others have said the jet stream will capture the hurricane and sling it up the east coast. Until now. Overnight, the American Model is now trending toward the escape route idea of the ECMWF model. This is good as trend is your friend in the world of meteorology. As of now, I am leaning in the direction of the ECMWF–a hurricane that passes out to sea but even that model could shift the track west. Best advice would be to check out a few more newscasts through the day than you normally do and keep on with your plans.

As for our weather, that nasty front that blasted us with 3-4" of rain yesterday is draped from the Cape to the Jersey Shore this morning, too far away (and much weaker) for any rain (except later today on the Cape) but plenty of clouds and this is the case right through the weekend. I think there will be some steadier rain from that front during the day tomorrow–especially south of the MA Pike where 1" of rain is likely along the South Coast/Cape but just an isolated shower possible around the metro (dry north of the Pike). The weekend will offer a cool breeze with a bunch of clouds but only a few sprinkles/drizzle from those clouds. Perfect Oktober weather. Prost!

~JR

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