The 2019 season seemed all but over after the Red Sox dropped eight straight games from July 28-August 4 to the Yankees and Rays. Boston fell six and a half games behind New York for the AL East lead and went from tied for the second Wild Card spot to six and a half back.
But something strange happened on the road to oblivion. The Sox started winning. Since August 5, Boston is 15-8 and have won six of eight series. While the Sox are still long shots to make the playoffs (8.5% according to Fangraphs), they are playing meaningful games for at least another week. That seemed unlikely a month ago.
The offense has remained high-powered, posting .281/.351/.521 splits since August 5, at least top four in all three categories over that time span. More surprisingly, the pitching has stabilized after a disastrous stretch.
Sox starters posted a 10.70 ERA during the eight-game losing streak, worst in baseball by nearly three earned runs. Opponents hit .367 off them with an astonishing .705 slugging percentage. The rotation hasn’t been great since then, but it’s returned to the middle of the pack in MLB, posting a 4.46 ERA.
The Boston bullpen, a source of consternation for fans all season, has been superb over the last month, posting a 3.60 ERA (second best in the American League) with opponents hitting an AL worst .206 against them over 110 innings. The Boston pen has allowed the fewest home runs in the league (nine) over that span while posting the fifth most innings. Darwinzon Hernandez and Brandon Workman lead baseball in strikeouts among relievers since August 5 and Workman, Marcus Walden, Josh Taylor and Andrew Cashner have all posted ERA’s below three.
SOX BULLPEN SINCE AUGUST 5th
PLAYER IP ERA
Walden 13 2.77
Cashner 10 0.90
Workman 12.2 2.84
Taylor 12.2 1.42
Cashner, a brutal 1-5 with a 8.01 ERA as a starter with Boston, has allowed just one earned run in 10 innings since moving to the bullpen. Rookie Taylor walked two and struck out 15 during a stretch of 12 straight scoreless appearances that came to an end Friday in L.A.
It hasn’t all been pretty. Ryan Brasier oversaw a monumental eighth inning collapse Saturday in Los Angeles at a time when every loss is particularly costly. But the Sox pen held the Angels to one run and two hits over the game’s final five innings Sunday to get a 4-3 victory and win the three-game series against L.A. There’s no way Boston would even still be clinging to playoff life if not for its bullpen.
So what will it take to make the playoffs? An insanely strong finish coupled with a healthy dose of luck. It won’t take a miracle but something close to that.
To get the final Wild Card spot, the Sox need to make up five games in the standings and leap frog two teams. As good as Boston was for much of August, they made up just a game and a half in the Wild Card standings following their eight-game skid. That’s because while the Sox went 15-8, the Rays (15-10) and Athletics (14-10) didn’t leave them much space to gain ground.
Fangraphs projects it will take about 93 wins to get the second Wild Card spot. In a top heavy league this year, that would be tied for the second-highest win total for the second spot since the playoff format changed to two Wild Card teams in 2012.
To reach 93 wins, Boston would need to go 19-6 the rest of the way and finish their season winning 34 of their final 48 games. With seven games this week against division leaders New York and Minnesota it seems a very tall task. A look at who Boston and their rivals have left to play along with home/road splits:
TEAM GAMES vs. +.500 TEAMS HOME/ROAD
Boston 13 of 25 13/12
Tampa Bay 8 of 25 14/11
Cleveland 12 of 25 13/12
Oakland 4 of 25 12/13
The Athletics have 10 games left against bottom feeders Detroit, Kansas City and Seattle. The Rays have games left against the Dodgers, Yankees and Red Sox as well as an eight-game road trip through Texas and LA, but they can reach 93 wins by basically just playing .500 ball.
The likelihood of any of the Sox Wild Card rivals (let alone two) cratering, coupled with Boston going gangbusters is improbable. But that’s better than impossible, which where the Red Sox’s playoff hopes were heading a month ago.