Snow on the way?… Yes, finally we have the chance of some winter in here by Tuesday with some snow, ice and rain.  A messy mix to sum it up.

First thing first, we still have some relatively mild air in place and that holds true through today.  With the mild air in place, we’ll stay warm enough for all rain as some showers and drizzle roll on through this early this morning.  Mid morning to mid afternoon, we’ll have some dry hours, although I can’t rule out another isolated shower, especially near day’s end as a cold front comes through.  Behind it… colder air tonight.  

While the cold air that’s in place Monday into Monday night won’t be much more than a seasonable chill, it will be enough to provide frozen precipitation on the onset of the next storm, slated for early Tuesday morning. 

As an of low pressure carves it’s path from Texas, to the Midwest, a bunch of moisture along a warm front get’s driven into New England and driven into the cold air initially in place. That means a burst of snow likely breaks out sometime between 1-4am Tuesday across the area.  As mild air gets pulled in, both from the ocean along the coast, and 7-10k feet up from the southwest, that snow likely changes to sleet between 7-11am from south to north inland and to rain across far eastern Mass.  The change to plain ole rain happens fastest along the coast, especially from Boston, south, while the period of sleet and freezing rain is more prolonged the deeper inland you go.  Bottom line, expect a messy early Tuesday AM commute, especially inland.  The evening commute will be wet and not white as leftover moisture falls in the form of rain.  

In terms of snowfall totals, the initial burst of snow in the early morning likely leaves a coating to a couple inches in eastern Mass and locations south of the Pike.  North of the pike and west of 95, up to a few inches may fall with the best chance of several inches of snow in northern Mass and southern New Hampshire, away from the coast.  Not the biggest storm, but you don’t need big to cause a mess on the roads.   It’s also looks to be the first widespread mess of the winter so we’ll have to take it slow. 

After a bit of a break Wednesday, rain showers likely move in here Wednesday night and early Thursday, but should dry out for the evening plans on New Years Eve.  Temps likely run in the 30s New Years Eve night for festivities in Boston and hold near 40 New Years Day. 

Enjoy the rest of the weekend. 

@clamberton7 – twitter 

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