(CNN) — Experts say there’s a tough race between Covid-19 vaccinations and a contagious variant that’s rapidly spreading across the US, threatening another dangerous surge — and the eased restrictions only further complicate things.
“It’s going to be a close call,” Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health told CNN on Tuesday. “We are vaccinating really well, that’s the good news. These variants are spreading pretty quickly across the country, that’s the bad news.”
“To me, I think the vaccine should win out,” Jha added. “Here’s the big but: What Texas, Mississippi, other states are doing to relax and get rid of the mask orders and kind of act like everything is back to normal, that is definitely coming down on the side of the variants.”
The governors in Texas and Mississippi are among at least a dozen state leaders that have eased restrictions this month — many crediting improved Covid-19 numbers and increased vaccinations.
Mississippi, for instance, has seen new cases jump 19% from last week, according to Johns Hopkins University data. The state has an average of 463 new cases per day. Case counts have been increasing over the last eight days.
In 15 states, new Covid-19 cases reported over the week that ended on Tuesday were at least 10% higher than a week ago, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. In two of those states — Minnesota and Michigan — cases were more than 40% higher than a week before, according to the data.
New cases are still trending down in the US overall and experts say that typically more sustained data — of at least a couple weeks — is needed to identify a trend. But with multiple concerning variants circulating in the country, catching early warning signs may be key to limiting continued spread.
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US creating ‘perfect storm’ scenario for variant spread
There are several variants that worry experts right now.
They include two coronavirus strains first detected in California that are now officially “variants of concern,” according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The variants may be about 20% more transmissible, the agency said, citing early research, and some treatments may also be less effective against the strains. The CDC did not say that vaccines would stop working against them.
The two variants first identified in California have also been designated as “variants of interest” by the World Health Organization.
“Outside of the US, reported detections of the (variants of interest) are currently limited to a relatively low number of sequences, suggesting it has not yet resulted in widespread disease in other countries,” the WHO said in its weekly epidemiological update.
According to the WHO, a “variant of interest” is a variant that has been identified to cause community transmission, multiple Covid-19 cases or clusters, or has been detected in multiple countries. The WHO defines a “variant of concern” as one that increases transmission or virulence, or decreases the effectiveness of public health and social mitigation measures, diagnostics, or vaccines.
But there’s one that’s “front and center,” said Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.
It’s the B.1.1.7 variant, that was first detected in the UK and is now projected to become the dominant variant in the US in just a matter of weeks, according to the CDC.
“Our current models … project that by end of March, early April, B.1.1.7 will be the dominant variant,” CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said on Monday.
There have been at least 4,690 cases of the variant reported in the US — and that likely doesn’t represent the total number of cases across the country, but rather just those that have been found by scientists analyzing positive samples. The variant has been detected in at least 48 states, Puerto Rico and Washington, DC.
Recent research suggests the variant could be tied to a higher risk of dying from Covid-19. But there’s growing evidence the variant poses little threat to the efficacy of current vaccines.
“I think the next several weeks are going to be all about B.1.1.7 and the race we have between vaccine and the variant,” Osterholm said. “Loosening up as we are right now… we are creating a perfect storm scenario for this virus to spread.”
Florida leads the US with the most B.1.1.7 variant cases reported, according to the CDC. It has reported 738 cases of the variant — which totals 15% of all cases reported in the US, CDC data shows.
In Texas, 235 cases of the B.1.1.7 variant have been identified, according to the CDC. That’s the sixth highest number in the nation.
An ensemble forecast published Wednesday by the CDC projected 554,000 to 574,000 coronavirus deaths in the United States by April 10. The previous ensemble forecast, last Wednesday, projected up to 571,000 coronavirus deaths by April 3.
At least 536,925 people have already died from Covid-19 in the US, according to Johns Hopkins University.
Different approaches to St. Patrick’s Day
At a time health officials say is critical in determining how the pandemic continues to unfold, celebrations for St. Patrick’s Day will also look different in some parts of the country.
Some Irish pubs in New Orleans announced they will not be opening for the celebrations, citing concerns of Covid-19 spread and restrictions on businesses.
Finn McCool’s Irish Pub, located in the Mid-City area, wrote on Facebook on Monday that the crowds “would not allow us to stay compliant with state and city rules.”
“As much as we would love to be open and see everyone’s faces, doing so would endanger not only our staff but also the community,” the post said.
New Orleans officials had further eased restrictions last week, allowing retail stores, restaurants, salons, and other businesses to increase to 75% capacity. Bars, breweries, gyms and other venues are now able to operate at 50% capacity.
Meanwhile in Georgia, Savannah Mayor Van Johnson said Tuesday the city is open, while urging Covid-19 mitigation efforts be upheld.
“It’s important to note that Savannah is wide open. We’ve been wide open. And the way we stay open is to require the use of masks,” the mayor said, highlighting how important St. Patrick’s Day celebrations are to the local economy.
Despite the pandemic and a city-issued mask mandate, thousands of residents and tourists, some maskless and many not socially distanced, packed the city’s streets and businesses over the weekend.
All states have vaccinated at least 10% of adults
The partying in Savannah and the spring break crowds in Florida are examples of the hunger for a return to normal.
Disneyland, the company’s flagship theme park located in Anaheim, California, plans to reopen with limited capacity on April 30, Disney announced on Wednesday. The Disney resort, which houses Disneyland and its sister theme park California Adventure, has been closed for more than a year because of the pandemic.
In at least 34 states, Covid-19 test positivity rates are higher among older children between the ages of 12 and 17 than any other age group, according to a CNN analysis of the latest Covid-19 Community Profile Report published by the federal government.
On average, test positivity rates among the 12-17 age group were more than double state rates over the past week, the federal data shows. Three states did not have test positivity data by age group available.
The US Department of Health and Human Services on Wednesday announced a $10 billion initiative to implement Covid-19 surveillance testing in schools across the country.
Experts say now is not the time to ditch safety precautions. A safer future is just a few months away, when more of the country is vaccinated.
Nearly 74 million Americans have so far received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, according to CDC data. More than 39 million are fully vaccinated — some 11.8% of the US population.
More than 113 million doses of Covid-19 vaccine have been administered — or about 77% of the 147,590,615 doses delivered — in the US, the CDC reported Wednesday.
That’s about 2.3 million more administered doses reported since Tuesday — a new record seven-day average of nearly 2.5 million doses per day.
Among the country’s 65-and-older population, more than a third are fully vaccinated and nearly two-thirds have received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine.
Additionally, all states have fully vaccinated at least 10% of their adult population.
To boost vaccination numbers faster, many state leaders have recently announced expanded eligibility guidelines, adding millions of Americans to the list of people who can get a shot. President Joe Biden has said he wants all American adults to be eligible for a vaccine by May 1 — and some states have said they’re planning on getting there sooner.
Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker announced Wednesday that as of April 19, people ages 16 and older will be eligible for a Covid-19 vaccine.
A study published by the CDC Wednesday said counties considered to have high social vulnerability had lower vaccine coverage than counties considered to have low social vulnerability during the first two and half months of Covid-19 vaccine distribution in the US.
The CDC social vulnerability index identifies communities that may need additional support during emergencies based on 15 indicators across four categories: socioeconomic status, household composition, racial/ethnic minority status and housing type. Counties were split equally between high, moderate and low social vulnerability.
By March 1, nearly 52 million vaccine doses had been administered in the US, and about 15.1% of the population had received at least one dose. But vaccination coverage was about 2 percentage points higher in counties with low social vulnerability (15.8%) than in counties with high social vulnerability (13.9%), according to the study.
The differences were largely driven by socioeconomic disparities, particularly differences in the share of the population with a high school diploma and per capita income.
The Biden administration on Wednesday announced a new $2.25 billion initiative to address health equity issues related to Covid-19.
“Everyone in America should have equal opportunity to be as healthy as possible,” Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said in a statement.
Here is what vaccine eligibility looks like across the US
While vaccinations have accelerated, challenges — including vaccine hesitancy and disinformation — remain.
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