(CNN) — Tropical Storm Fred is expected to form Tuesday, prompting tropical storm watches and warnings across the northern Caribbean.
If it forms, Fred will be the sixth named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season and will make its way to the southern US this weekend. The disturbance is currently a potential tropical cyclone and the National Hurricane Center is forecasting it to strengthen into a tropical storm Tuesday afternoon or evening.
“Satellite imagery shows that the disturbance has become better organized since yesterday,” the National Hurricane Center said Tuesday morning.
The system is moving west-northwestward at 18 mph with sustained winds of 35 mph. As it continues to progress through the Caribbean, the potential cyclone will bring the threat of flooding, mudslides, and dangerous winds to the islands in the region.
“Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning this afternoon, and in the Dominican Republic by Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northern Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas by late Wednesday,” the NHC said.
Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques, the US Virgin Islands, and parts of the Dominican Republic on Tuesday. Tropical storm watches include Martinique and Guadeloupe, Saba and St. Eustatius, the Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to the border of Haiti, parts of Haiti, Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas, according to the NHC.
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the warning area within 36 hours.
The disturbance will bring flooding rainfall to parts of the Caribbean throughout the middle of the week, causing concerns for flash flooding and mudslides in the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico.
“The greatest threat for flooding impacts will be across the eastern and southeastern portions of Puerto Rico,” said the NHC.
The Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands are expected to see two to four inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of up to six inches. The Dominican Republic could get three to six inches as well. Smaller totals of one to three inches are forecast for the Windward Islands.
Dangerous surf and rip currents are also impacting the Caribbean and will continue within the warning and watch areas.
Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall threaten a wider region across Hispaniola, the Bahamas and Cuba in the latter portion of the week as the storm travels across the northern Caribbean.
As the system approaches and potentially moves over Cuba, the land interaction could potentially weaken the storm significantly. There is still uncertainty in the track of the disturbance, but some models show the storm tracking over the island, which would inhibit strengthening.
If the potential cyclone follows a more northerly path in open waters, there is still a possibility for further strengthening but the forecast is still uncertain in the formative stages of the storm.
“For the next few days the storm will be affected by Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic and likely not strengthen much, but after that there is plenty of warm water for it to get stronger,” said CNN meteorologist Chad Meyers.
The Bahamas and Florida may be impacted by the tropical system later in the week, but the uncertainty of the forecast is impairing the timing of impacts. The storm could make its way into the Gulf by the end of the week or the weekend, depending on the ultimate track of the disturbance.
“Interests in Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts could occur there by late this week or this weekend given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast,” the NHC says.
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