BOSTON (WHDH) - Consensus seems to be that this year’s American League pennant will come down to a three-team race between the Red Sox, Yankees and Astros. They own the top three records in all of baseball and, Seattle’s surge notwithstanding, remains far above the rest of the pack in the AL.
Yet, a deeper dive into some of the numbers indicate that one team out of the three may actually stand above the other two with room to distance themselves in the second half of the season. As awesome as the 2018 Red Sox have been thus far, it ain’t them.
As of Friday morning, the Astros sit at 58-31, a winning percentage of .652. That’s third behind both Boston and New York, respectively. Yet by pythagorean winning percentage, a team’s expected win/loss record based on their run differential, Houston should be the best team in baseball and it’s not even close.
The Astros have been a full five games worse than their run differential indicates they should be. That’s the second worst luck in baseball behind only the hapless Orioles. No other contender in all of baseball has a record so far below their expected win/loss.
Part of the reason for the difference is Houston has lost 16 one-run games. That’s already three more than they did all of last season. Only Kansas City has lost more one-run contests this year. There may be good reasons the Astros have struggled in one-run contests (they’ve blown 10 saves) but things like pythagorean win/loss and one-run record don’t necessarily mean a team doesn’t deserve the record it has, it just means they may be a better team than they’ve shown so far.
And what the defending champions have shown so far is that they’re still the best team in baseball.
The Astros have easily the best run differential in the league at +174. Their 2.0 per game run differential is the best in baseball by a full half a run over everyone else. Their run prevention is what has separated them from the rest of the league: Houston’s 3.1 runs allowed per game is 0.6 runs better than anyone else.
The scary thing is there are still demonstrable areas where the Astros can improve. Houston’s starters have posted the best ERA in the league while Dallas Keuchel, their former Cy Young winner, has been essentially a league-average starter with a 4.12 ERA and a 1.308 WHIP.
First baseman Yuli Gurriel has been good at the plate, but his power numbers are down from last year. The Astros have the fewest home runs from the first base position of any team in baseball. Josh Reddick and Jake Marisnick have seen their offensive production drop considerably from last year.
Houston has the prospects to go out and get another closer (they’ve been linked to the Reds’ Raisel Iglesias) or to add lineup depth. But even if one or two of the aforementioned players currently on their roster return to 2017 form, Houston could distance themselves from Boston and New York.
The American League is certainly top heavy. But don’t fool yourself into thinking there isn’t a frontrunner.
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