Only a week ago, Red Sox fans could be forgiven for having a little bit of hope about their team’s playoff chances. True, they had just lost a Sunday night battle against the Yankees, but the offense seemed to find its footing (44 runs scored in four games) and while Boston was still nine games behind the Yankees in the AL East, they were just a game behind Oakland for the second AL wild card spot.
Then came last week. The Sox lost eight straight games for the first time in four years before finally getting back on track Monday night with a 7-5 win over Kansas City. But the damage is done and the postseason, in all likelihood, is a quickly disappearing mirage.
In the last seven days, Boston’s chances of making the playoffs have dropped more than 25%, according to Baseball Reference. That’s by far the largest decrease in all of baseball over that time frame. The Red Sox now hold just a six percent chance to make the playoffs.
Fangraphs is significantly more optimistic about Boston’s chances to make the playoffs than Baseball Reference (and basically all Red Sox fans for that matter). This is because the web site projects the Sox to play .600 ball down the stretch (that sound you heard was Boston fans coughing up their lunch). It has the Sox finishing about three wins higher (at 88) than Baseball Reference. However, even with that favorable projection, Boston’s playoff odds are still only about one in four.
Both web sites anticipate it will take just about 90 wins to secure that second wild card spot. That would mean the Red Sox have to go 30-17 over the season’s final seven weeks. Baseball Reference has Boston’s 95th percentile confidence interval (essentially the most optimistic projection you could possibly have) at 91 wins. Anyone feel confident in that?
By Fangraphs projections, Boston’s playoff percentage tumbled nearly 35 percentage points since July 28th. You don’t have to be a numbers nerd to see what these projections mean: the Red Sox very likely played themselves out of the playoffs during their very bad week.