Well, it seems like it wants to snow around here for sure. The system the move through overnight managed to produce 1-3″ near and northwest of I-495 with locally up to 4″ in the Worcester Hills. Overall though, we’ll dry out this morning and enjoy a milder day. The only milder day in the forecast. Highs this afternoon will run in the low to mid 40s with a gusty breeze out of the southwest to west.
A cold front comes through late today, and we’ll take one big step down in temps for tomorrow as highs max out in the mid 20s to near 30.
An Arctic fronts blast through with a snow shower/squall late tomorrow afternoon. Temps drop into the single digits by midnight and back to around 0 by daybreak Saturday. With temps running -5 to +5 Saturday morning and gusty winds continuing, wind chills will run -10 to -20 to start the day. The coldest temps and wind chills will be in the higher terrain. Highs max out Saturday in the upper single digits to mid teens. Brrrrrrr!
We fade back to near 0 again Saturday night, allowing for another frigid start Sunday morning, although the wind won’t be as strong.
While the cold is the story of Sunday morning, the snow will be the story of the afternoon. A sprawling snow and ice storm from Texas, through the mid-Atlantic, will look to push moisture up into New England by Sunday afternoon. With the cold air in place, no doubt, it would be in the form of snow. How far north the shield of the heaviest precip gets will depend on the track, but as of now, I expect a widespread plowable snow. In fact, the probabilities for 6″+ are very high. With the northern shield of the storm stretched out across a long distance from west to east, if the steady snow gets here Sunday afternoon, and then the storms motion moves east, snow would likely linger through Monday with varying intensity through that timeframe.
In additional, we’re going to have a coastal front set up. That’s when easterly winds off the ocean kick in, and bump up against a north to northeast light breeze and Arctic air. These fronts can enhance snowfall rates along and just west of them.
Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, it’ll migrate from east to west, and then slip back southeast during Monday morning. The area below shaded in darker blues are some areas that will likely have enhances rates with the front at some point.
At this point, winds don’t look strong enough to produce significant wind damage or coastal flooding. While there may be some pockets of power outages coastal Southeast Mass, it shouldn’t be a widespread issue. In terms of precipitation type, there may be an opportunity for some sleet/mix south of Route 44 in Southeast Mass overnight Sunday, but not until after quite a bit of snow falls. Any mix would likely go back to snow at some point Monday anyway.
In terms of snow amounts… 6″+ is very likely. For 12″+ potential to come into fruition, the coastal front will have to set-up and produce locally higher snow rates for a while, and the trailing low west of us, needs the keep the snow going at times through much of Monday. In addition, the very dry air parked to our north needs to retreat and not interfere to cut down on snow rates. Probability of 6″+ is running 90+% with the chance for 12″+ pushing 30-60%+.
Bottom line, lots winter weather to track as we get close to the weekend!