Are You Keeping Track?!

If I have to say “tracking trouble in the Tropics” one more time…  No, but seriously – it is “all eyes on the Tropics” right now, with many areas to watch.  Let me try to break it down for you, in case you’re heading to any “Tropical Trivia” game nights in your near future:

First, Hurricane Gaston is still a Cat 2 way out in the Atlantic.  Gaston strengthened a touch at the last update from the NHC (National Hurricane Center), with winds at 110mph.  Gaston is tracking EAST – AWAY from the East Coast.  This will not be a threat to land… other than the increased risk for rip currents and large waves, as the storm is churning up the ocean.  Here’s a great Chief Meteorologist Jeremy Reiner posted on Twitter earlier today:  (In case you’ve been wondering where JR has been while you’ve been stuck with me)

Them are some pretty and feisty waves!  The moderate risk for rip currents will continue to be a concern through the coming days, so please be mindful of this.  #IMHO the beach is better enjoyed from the warm/dry sand… according to the book “Beach-Going Safety Tips by Bri.”  Okay, I never wrote that book, but that would be tip #1.

Now, the next area of concern that we’re watching is off the coast of North Carolina.  This is known (as of now) as Tropical Depression Eight.  T.D. Eight is having a hard time getting organized, but is still expected to strengthen into a tropical storm sometime tomorrow as it tracks AWAY from the coastline.  Either way, this will also help to stir up the seas.  Closer to home, T.D. Eight will NOT have a direct impact on our weather, but we may be able to tap into a little bit of this tropical moisture as a front crosses through overnight Wednesday into Thursday.  Some areas could pick up a quick downpour – HOWEVER, this will not be the rain we desperately need.

I think most of the talk and “watching” that’s being done is of T.D. Nine (formerly known as Invest 99-L) down in the Gulf of Mexico.  This is also NOT YET a tropical storm, but is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm overnight tonight into early Wednesday and then take a sharp turn to the NE for its track.  The Gulf Coast of Florida already has a Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Watch issued.

I’m sure you’re already looking at that big “cone of uncertainty” and thinking:  WAIT!  That’s tracking RIGHT INTO NEW ENGLAND!  If you’re thinking that – STOP NOW.  First, it’s still a long ways out.  This system is NOT YET a tropical storm, and it’s not yet named.  Second, the “cone of uncertainty” is NOT a picture of all of the area the system will affect.  A lot of people think that, but rather it’s an area of where the track of the system could end up.  So yes, it is a possibility at this system tracks close to New England.  That is in the cards.  But it’s also still in the cards that this system tracks out to sea and doesn’t bum out our Labor Day Weekend plans.  It’s also a possibility that it ends up somewhere in the middle of those two scenarios and still brings wind and rain to the Cape and islands.  It’s still something to watch… but it is taking away confidence in my extended forecast.  Really, past Saturday on the 7Day, I need to just say “STAY TUNED…”  What I want to say is “HOLD YOUR HORSES.”  Don’t call out the Calvary for a storm yet – because it still could be a complete miss.  We’ll keep you posted.

In the immediate future, tomorrow is another warm and muggy day.  Clouds increase throughout Wednesday and as I previously mentioned, we could get some showers/storms overnight Wednesday into Thursday (NOT directly connected to any of this tropical activity!).  This front moving through during this time-frame will also bring in a refreshing “fall-feel” for the end of the week and into the weekend.  -Breezy