Yep. You read that right. This morning was the coldest of the winter so far as Boston dropped to 17°. Prior to this morning, the coldest morning at Logan Airport was 20°. Regardless, it didn’t feel like it. Wind chills were near zero this morning with Boston falling to just 2° at one point and Worcester and Nashua seeing the feels like temperatures fall subzero.

The one positive side of the cold, is it often come with bone dry air masses. Which means not only do we stay precipitation free but cloud free as well. It’s been a week since we’ve seen the sun and we’ll get plenty of it today! Despite how we’re starting the day, the afternoon won’t be that bad. Keep in mind we are in January and statistically the coldest part of the year. Temperatures will make it to about the freezing mark this afternoon but the wind will also back down. Winds should only be about 5 mph through the afternoon so wind chills should hold on to the mid 20s. For January it certainly could be worse.

Get ready for a little whiplash with the sun this week. We had overcast skies all day long yesterday, we’ll have full sunshine today. The back and forth pattern will continue this week with clouds returning Wednesday, sunshine Thursday, and clouds again on Friday. In fact that pattern will persist through the weekend with sun on Saturday and clouds on Sunday. The cloudy days will also come with precipitation chances.

So what is rain and what is snow? Wednesday temperatures are warm enough where this is all rain. Friday though, is a different story.

Let’s start with Wednesday. Rain chances will be scattered and it’s not an all day washout. In the morning especially, we’ll actually see more dry time than wet hours. Any rain in the morning will be light and more of a spot shower threat. Shower coverage area and intensity will increase Wednesday afternoon and evening, so that’s the wetter part of the day.

Then there’s Friday. Friday looks like our first decent shot at widespread snow accumulation across the area. Of course we’re still 3 days out from this one so we’d expect some changes in the track of the area of low pressure. But here’s what I can say:

  • Models have become more in agreement that a storm is happening.
  • The trend of the models have been more and more northwest (i.e. closer to New England). What that means is the likelihood of this thing staying out to sea and taking away our chance of snow is become more and more unlikely.
  • However, that same trend to the northwest, if it continues, means we’ll have more of a rain/snow line to track. Right now it looks like it’s snow for almost everyone, except maybe the Cape. If we continue to push the track closer to the coastline, that rain/snow line may push farther inland to I-95.

Again, these are just preliminary thoughts and we’ll have much more on this storm tomorrow, when we get inside of 48 hours so stay tuned to the forecast.

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