A bit of a chill is back in place this morning as cooler air has pushed in from the Northwest with temps dipping into the 40s for many. It’s a relatively quiet day with highs near seasonable levels, in the low to mid 60s. It’ll be very similar tomorrow with a mix of sun and clouds and highs in the low to mid 60s.
A shot of chillier air slides in Thursday with a gusty breeze as high temps hold in the mid to upper 50s. Northwest winds gusts 20-30mph. As skies clear Thursday night into Friday morning, many towns will drop into the 30s.
The bounce back over the weekend will be nice with highs near or above 70 for many on Saturday. A few showers are possible late Sunday-Sunday night.
In the tropics Hurricane Milton continues to be a big story, and for good reason.
Milton rapidly strengthened yesterday into a Category 5 hurricane with max sustained winds of 180mph and a central pressure of 897mph. A top echelon storm in the Atlantic and very reminiscent of the rapidly strengthening we saw with Wilma in 2005. Over the next 24 hours, there will be some fluctuation back and forth with cat 4/5. Milton will make it’s approach toward the west close of Florida Wednesday night as a major hurricane (Cat 3+). As it makes landfall, a large/destructive storm surge will push in. That surge will be as high as 10-15 feet where Milton makes landfall, and just to the south of the eye. Even 100 miles south of landfall, there will be a significant surge, although not as high, so folks all the way down the Southwest Coast of Florida will be vulnerable to coastal flooding. Below is the latest storm surge forecast from NHC.
In regards to Tampa Bay, the worst case scenario would be a landfall over Tampa Bay or around St. Pete/Clearwater area. That would drive a tremendous amount of water into Tampa Bay and produce a devastating 10-15 foot storm surge. It would be a set-up not seen since the 1921 and 1848 hurricanes, when the area was sparsely populated. If Milton makes landfall closer to Sarasota/Siesta Key area, then Tampa Bay would escape the worst surge, but it would be destructive still farther south.