Satellite picture this afternoon of Irma shows a powerful storm continuing to head for Florida:
The redistribution of heat from the tropics to the poles is a natural, yet destructive process. Irma is the latest attempt at the planet trying to even out the heat budget. Unfortunately, there will be no miraculous out to sea or significant weakening before making landfall in Florida.
As of Friday evening, it looks like she will make landfall as a strong Category 4 storm….the last time a Cat-4 made landfall in Florida was Hurricane Charlie in 2004. Other notable hurricanes to make landfall in the sunshine state are:
In terms of power & energy, this storm will rival Andrew of 1992. The building codes of South Florida were brought up significantly after Andrew’s destruction (able to withstand 130 mph winds). Those codes will be put to the test this weekend. Here is the forecast track from the National Hurricane Center:
The track line shows a landfall through the Florida Keys–west of Duck Key but east of Key West and then up through the Naples-Ft. Myers area Sunday Morning. Wind and storm surge are the biggest concerns (rainfall still serious tho, 8-12″ of rain). Here is the wind forecast (from the ECMWF Model)for South Florida:
Wind gusts likely in excess of 140 mph at times. So that’s the wind concern, and the storm surge–a combination of both strong winds and the extremely low air pressure within the storm creating a buldge of the sea surface…which then moves ashore…is likely to be devastating. Here is the storm surge forecast:
After all that, I’m nearly at a loss for words…when I was a young punk in my early-mid 20s I would marvel at the meteorology of a storm like this but as I have gotten older and become a parent, a homeowner as well as starting to identify own mortality, I feel for the people in Florida…homes and businesses wiped away in a matter of hours. Heartbreaking…….
……As for our weather this weekend, quiet. Bit cool with afternoon clouds each day. A brief/isolated shower possible Saturday afternoon..
We’ll have updates on Irma this weekend.
~JR