Fall is Here! Kinda…

Well, today marks the beginning of astronomical fall – marked by the autumnal equinox which happened at 4:02 EST.  Can you smell the pumpkin-spice in the air?  Today certainly feels like fall, as what’s left of Jose is still hanging around, keeping our forecast in the “same story, different day” category.  A few showers out there, and still an active wind… though not as gusty as previous days.  Currently gusts are in the 30-40mph range, but will continue to relax into the overnight hours.  Temps were on the struggle bus today, especially SE Mass – for some, stuck in the 50s.  That really inspires me to rummage through my closet and break out the sweaters, all things plaid, and my favorite boots.  BUT I’ll wait to do that… because summer weather is back this weekend!

Tomorrow we’ll have to be patient waiting for the sun (especially SE Mass.) and the warming temps – but we’ll get there.  N & W of 495, highs will be in the low 80s – but across the Cape and islands, where the clouds thrown our way by Jose will continue to linger, temps are stuck in the 60s.  Sunday is SUN-day quite literally, and record highs are within reach.  There could even be spots in the interior that hit 90°!  Coolest along the coastline, but again – it feels like summer, rather than fall.  Perhaps that inspires you to head to the beach… and that’s great.  But head the warnings there – as the water is still VERY churned up and VERY dangerous.  High risk of rip currents and some large waves still kickin’ in.

I know what you really want to know about:  Hurricane Maria.  The now Cat 3 storm is wreaking havoc on the Turks and Caicos this evening – and will continue to track NNW into the weekend and eventually parallel the Eastern Seaboard into the beginning of next week (see forecast below).  As Maria tracks north, the storm will run into some cooler water – thanks to Jose, dredging up the cooler ocean water from below and essentially stirring the ocean up ahead of Maria’s path.  As Maria runs out of availability of warm ocean water, the storm will also run out of gas and should weaken to a Cat 1 by Wednesday morning.  However, it’s worth noting that intensity is even trickier to forecast than track… but that’s the thinking currently.  It’s also worth nothing that 4-5 days out, the average track error for these storms is around 200-250 miles (hence the “cone of uncertainty)… so the track from the National Hurricane Center is certainly subject to change.  And I’ll tell you, looking at that track moving north – it’s a little unsettling thinking about what’s next.  But I’ll also tell you that I’m personally encouraged by forecast model runs today – and it’s looking more likely that Maria will be swept out to sea, making it a “storm for the fish” by the end of the week.  Again, subject to change – We’re keeping a close eye on it – We’ll keep you posted – Keep your fingers crossed.  Have a great weekend.  – Breezy