After a brutal start to winter back in December with historic cold (week-long temps not getting above 20 degrees around the Holidays) and that powerful winter storm the first week in January, winter really hasn’t been that bad since about mid January. Tomorrow is the last day of February as well as the last day of Meteorological Winter…I know, you’re devastated. It looks as though we’ll close the books on February in fine fashion with warm temps as well as sunny skies. Even Thursday–the first day of meteorological spring–looks good until about 3-4pm (clouds and cooler temps infiltrate New England late in the day)
Drink it in because Friday into early Saturday offer quite a storm. It will indeed be a nasty nor’easter passing south of New England. Unfortunately, as of this evening, we still don’t know how far south as there continues to be conflicting signals between the computer models on the track of the storm. Like last night the most confident aspect of the storm is the threat of coastal flooding as there will be astronomical high tides occurring during the storm (and beyond). The three high tides we are most concerned about are the Friday high tides as well as the midday Saturday high tide:
Regardless of track, the storm will generate a long fetch of easterly winds and pile water up along the New England coastline. That wind is track dependent so it could be wind gusts between 35-65mph or perhaps higher on the Cape/Islands is the storm is close to us. As of now, I would plan on beach erosion as well as moderate coastal flooding at each of those high tide cycles and perhaps even some pockets of major coastal flooding.
In terms of precipitation….that is tough but with a lack of arctic air before the storm it looks like mainly rain that ends as some wet snow but higher elevations of southern New England could see a heavy wet (spring) snowstorm. Rain totals could exceed 2″ if the storm track is close, while snow could exceed 4″ in the highest elevations. More on the type (and amount) of precipitation by tomorrow. Here is an early look at precipitation
Enjoy that sun and warmth tomorrow!
~JR