While there will be some fluctuation in Florence’s track from this point forward, unfortunately, it’s hard to see how the Carolinas could escape what will be one of the, if not THE, most damaging storms in their history. At this point, it’s a matter of pinning down what towns/cities are hardest hit, versus, will there be a hard hit?
Below is the 5am update from the National Hurricane Center. As overnight model guidance has suggested that Florence slows/stalls near the coast, then gets pushed west to southwest, the forecasted track has been adjusted to reflect that. I wouldn’t get bogged down with the whole cat 3 vs. 4, etc. Even if Florence technically drops a category or 2 before landfall, a large hurricane carrying a big storm surge will still be the end game here. For example, despite Katrina weakening from a category 5 to 3 before landfall, it still produced a category 5 type storm surge.
Storm surge forecasts are running 9-13 Feet for much of the southern half of the North Carolina coast. Adjustments pending exact track will likely be made over the coming 24-36hrs.
While we tend to focus on storm surge and wind speed, it’s flooding rains that are the #1 killer. We saw last year what a slow moving hurricane can do as Harvey produced 50-60″ of rain in Texas. If Florence does become nearly stationary, then North Carolina will shattered their highest rain total record as tallies may add up to locally 30-40″!!! Amounts anywhere near that will cause catastrophic flash flooding and river flooding in those areas.
The area of high pressure that pins Florence to our south will also provide us with nice weather over the weekend once we get through our scattered showers/downpours today and tomorrow AM. The only effects we will see from Florence this weekend will be the risk of rough surf and rip currents to the south coast of New England. Temps Saturday and Sunday warm to the lower 80s inland and hold in the mid to upper 70s at the coast.
Have a good day.
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