Hurricane Harvey made landfall near Rockport, TX last night as a category 4 hurricane with winds of 130mph. While the wind/surge was the story last night, the story will now become the rain. The forecast for Harvey is to loose the wind strength, but continue to unrelenting rains over the next several days. Essentially, the problem is that there’s no steering flow to move Harvey along.
Harvey is the 1st category 4 or stronger, hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. since Hurricane Charley carved a path through Cayo Costa, Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte in Florida back in 2004 (Katrina was a 3 at landfall). The last cat 3 or higher was Wilma, also in Florida in 2005. In fact, the almost 12 years between category 3 or higher hits in the U.S. is the longest stretch of lack of “major” hurricanes. Below is a graphic from Brian McNoldy that shows that.
Prolific rains are not uncommon in tropical systems, especially if they’re slow movers. What’s usual about Harvey, is not really the intensity of rain per se, it’s the duration of potential intense rains. That’s why the forecast models produce an insane amount of rain there the next several days. From Houston to Corpus Christ, 15-25″ will likely be widespread with the potential of some localized 35-40″ amount. The state record is 48″. Pending how the set-up unfolds the next several days, that record could be challenged.
Hopefully the folks down there do their best to stay safe and keep on top of the ongoing flood threat.
Locally for us, Harvey’s not an issue. We’re quiet through the weekend and to start next week.
What we’ll watch for mid-week next week is an area of low pressure off the Carolina coast try to form into the next named storm (Irma). Something to keep an eye on for next week in regards to evolution and track of it.
Have a good weekend.
@clamberton7