As the remnants of Fred head into southern New England this morning, localized downpours embedded within widespread showers, will produce the potential for brief, localized street flooding. In addition to locally heavy rain, a few of the strongest storms this morning, into this afternoon, will be capable of producing strong wind gusts. An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out either since the atmosphere has a lot of spin/rotation to it that’s associated with the remnants of Fred. Already early this morning, a couple cells produced tornado warnings across eastern New York. We’ll watch the radar closely through the day and keep an eye out for any severe thunderstorm/tornado warning that comes out. Highs run near 80 this afternoon as a few breaks of sun are possible as storms this afternoon become more hit or miss.
The big concern heading into the weekend is tropical storm Henri. Henri will likely become a hurricane over the next couple of days as it moves west, then north. While many times these storms curve out to sea, and New England is spared the worst impacts from the rain and wind, occasionally, that escape (out to sea) route gets blocked by a ridge of high pressure to our northeast. That forces these storms move up the east coast, toward New England. Unfortunately, it’s likely that a ridge of high pressure blocks Henri from racing out to sea. As Henri moves up the coast, an upper-level low to the west will likely either pull in farther west or slow it’s forward progress down. This all spells the potential for a high impact storm here Sunday into Monday. Even if Henri weakens a bit as it approaches the coast, a slow down in motion/pull back toward the coast, can push a lot of water toward the coastline. Combine that with the fact tides are astronomically high, the potential for significant to major beach erosion and coastal flooding is there.
We’ll also watch the potential of damaging winds and flooding rains. Strongest winds favor locations along and on the right hand side of the track, while the rain/flood potential is highest on the left side. The exact track will determine who gets the worst wind and rain. Highest winds will likely be see across the Cape/Islands or South Coast of New England. Whether the highest storm surges are on the east side of our coastline or south side, will also be dictated on the exact track. Bottom line, the potential high impact storm for Sunday into Monday is there.
