The National Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the South Coast of New England, as well as Cape Cod, Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard (see pic above). Yesterday it was a “watch,” rather than a “warning,” so why the upgrade? A “watch” would indicate that tropical storm conditions are POSSIBLE… while a “warning” indicates that tropical storm conditions are EXPECTED. While this storm is NOT expected to make landfall (the center of the storm moving onto land), the effects of Hermine are far reaching from the center. Today, the storm center is about 300 miles south of Nantucket, and 300-ish miles off the coast of Maryland. Hermine is like, “way far out, man” as a surfer might say.
**Side note: Rob Eicher and I both blogged about why this is NOT called “Tropical Storm Hermine” any longer – simply put, because she lacks “tropical characteristics.” However, we will still call this storm “Hermine,” even though it is now an extra-tropical cyclone – and it still has winds that are of tropical storm-force, and possibly even hurricane-force in the next 24 hours… Are you still following?! For more on this confusing-ness, check out the blogs from earlier this weekend.
Now, I will be the first to admit that today’s weather turned out marginally better than I had thought it might! We got to keep the sunshine around through the better part of the day! That won’t be the case come tomorrow… While Hermine is “way far out, man,” she is expected to track north and northWEST soon, bringing her wind-field and those rain-bands closer to our area. She won’t be tracking very quickly – of course you know this, as we’ve been expecting Hermine to slow to a crawl and wobble around the same spot for a couple/few days. Clouds begin to thicken in for us overnight tonight and the winds will strengthen, especially along the South Coast, Cape and islands. Peak winds are expected from late tonight through Monday afternoon, with a possible strengthening of winds again on Tuesday. This is the PRIMARY threat to any of the land that’s under the Tropical Storm Warning: Wind gusts between 40-50mph could knock out power in isolated areas, and take down tree-branches/limbs. Especially because of the current drought, vegetation is DRY and STRESSED and could break/fall more easily.
I know the Tropical Storm WARNING has many stressing out, much like the drought-dry trees I just mentioned. Don’t panic. No need to go get the milk, bread and eggs – unless they’re on your grocery list and you need them. Think of this as a “nor’easter” without the snow and cold. We’ve dealt with much worse here and even with this scenario, it could be worse. Really the biggest concern is for the timing, bumming out Labor Day Weekend plans – and taking the “beaching” and “boating” out of the holiday weekend plans. The biggest concern will be for the WATERS off the coast. As the NWS in Taunton puts it: “Expect a long duration of high surf, dangerous rip currents, beach erosion and wind gusts to Tropical Storm force on the southern waters and south coast/islands.” I say, expect a beach-bummer… unless you don’t mind the free micro-dermabrasion from sand flying around and you stay out of the water. But I mean, if that’s what you like, who am I to judge? Just be CAREFUL and MINDFUL if you’re planning on still hitting the beach in the next few days.
Here’s the rip current risk for beaches tomorrow, yellow is a MODERATE risk, and red is a HIGH risk: “A high risk of rip currents means dangerous and potentially life threatening conditions exist for all people entering the surf.”
With that said, I think MANY of us in the Bay State are going to be saying, “WHAT storm?!” when all of this is said and done. We may get some showers tomorrow, but the bulk of the rain is focused in the same areas as the strongest wind… Boston, points north and west can HOPE for 0.25″-0.50″ of rain. 1-2″ is more likely for SE Massachusetts. We may still have lingering clouds, breezy conditions, scattered showers through Wednesday.
Once Hermine is OUTTA HERE, we’ll heat things up. Yes, that is a 91° high on my forecast. No, it’s not a typo. Summer makes a comeback. – Breezy