Mainly Dry Weekend and Tracking Jose

We’re currently tracking widely scattered showers and downpours for the rest of Friday evening.  Where those soakers set up – they’re able to stay for a while, and it could cause some localized urban/street flooding for a time.  If you’re heading out for date night or #TGIF celebrations tonight, you might want the umbrella on hand “just in case.”  That is, unless you go out after 8pm.  The wet weather should dissipate for the rest of the evening.

The weekend looks mainly dry, save for a slight chance of a spot shower tomorrow.  That’s only about a 10% chance – so most of us will miss out on this.  It’s also still fairly warm and muggy both Saturday and Sunday, with highs around 80° both weekend days (coolest for the coast and Cape).  September weekend plans often include apple-picking.  As JR said earlier this evening, “It’s not exactly a forecast that screams ‘apple picking,’ but those apples need to be picked.”

Now – the real reason why you clicked on this blog was for more information about Jose.  At the 5pm update from the National Hurricane Center, Jose has re-strengthened into a Cat 1 hurricane.  Currently the storm is tracking to the NW, but will adjust to move north through the weekend and into next week.  This means that New England is included in the “cone of uncertainty” – but it’s worth noting that the forecast track (red line) has Jose as a TROPICAL STORM and even SE of the 40/70 benchmark… which would suggest that the impacts may be similar to a strong nor’easter with rain, rather than snow.  Still, that track could shift… father away – or closer to home.  This far out (4-5 days) there is an average track error of 150-225miles… that’s a LOT of wiggle room.  We’ll need to keep a very close eye on every update through the weekend.

The exact track will give us a clearer picture on what to expect:  That would be the “who gets what?” when it comes to rain and strong wind.  Another concern would be the new moon next week, which means high astronomical tides at the same time as Jose is churning up the seas and creating big waves – and pushing that water up against our coastline.  We’ll be monitoring the potential for beach erosion and coastal flooding through the middle of next week.

Again – the forecast could change as the track has the potential to change.  Stay tuned for updates.  In the meantime, have a great weekend.  – Breezy