Ready or not here it comes! Snow arrives late tonight and when it’s all said and done, it will leave many of us with a foot of snow!
Let’s break it down. By far, the biggest impact will be the snowfall numbers but since it’s a Nor’easter, it will bring some gusty winds and coastal flooding along for the ride.
A Winter Storm Warning is in effect through tomorrow for heavy snowfall rates and difficult travel.
Let’s start snow:
Here’s the juicy details everyone wants. The snow map. A foot of snow, give or take. Some areas in MetroWest will likely over achieve with some towns in Worcester County under achieving. Plan on a foot give or take.
That much snow will most definitely lead to difficult travel Thursday. In fact some travel on Thursday morning could be near impossible. By Thursday afternoon we’ll start to see improvement as the snowfall rates lighten up. Crews will be able to catch up to the snow that has accumulated on the roadways — at least the main roads. Side roads will take some time to catch up on as they won’t be attended to much during the day Thursday and the height of the storm.
Then comes to removing that snow. Doing that depends on where you are. A coastal front will set up across the area and impact temperatures tomorrow and thus snow weight. If you’re west of the Coastal front, you’ll have a lighter and fluffy snow. It will take less effort to get rid of that snow… that said, it’s still a foot of snow to remove. In Southeastern Massachusetts it’s a different story. Temperatures will hover near freezing which will lead to a heavy, wetter snow.
The good news is salt on roads works great when temperatures are near freezing. So we’ll have a lot of water on the road in Southeastern Massachusetts. But it’s only good news while that Coastal Front holds. As the storm exits, that Coastal Front will collapse and the cold air bottled up to the west of it will come crashing in, leading to a flash freeze of that water on the roads. Tomorrow is a day to stay off the roads all day long if possible.
If you like to remove the snow all at once, when only flurries remain, then hold off until about 3pm tomorrow. If you like to break it up into shifts, we’ll get a good chunk of our snow accumulated by about 10:00 in the morning. A few more inches will accumulate between then and 1pm, with the final flakes moving through the area around 3pm (outside of a few rogue/festive flakes that may linger after but won’t accumulate).
Now the Wind:
There will be a wind threat with this storm but not as much as other storms have produced. The bulk of the wind will be on the Cape and the Islands and Cape Ann. Wind gusts there could top 50 mph at times (red shaded areas). Those of us west of I-95 (yellow shaded area) will have gusty winds in the 25-30 mph ball park but it shouldn’t be too much of a concern. If you think back to our storm a week and a half ago, we had heavy, wet snow in the areas in yellow so a 30 mph gust on weighted power lines was an issue. Those areas will have a light and fluffy snow this time. The area in which power outages are most likely are in the orange area, primarily south of Boston. Not only could wind gusts hit 40 mph, but that’s where we’ll have heavy, wetter snow that could weigh down some tree limbs and power lines.
It is possible that, at times, the outer Cape and the Islands could even see an occasional wind gust to 60 mph so for that reason a High Wind Warning is in effect for tonight and Thursday morning.
Finally, Coastal Flooding:
Thankfully, the Coastal Flooding risk is low but it’s not zero. Tides right now are astronomically high, so a gusty northeast wind will lead to splash over during the high tide cycles at both 1am Thursday and 1pm Thursday. The coastal flooding potential is minor for most with some pockets of low-end moderate.
Past December Snows:
So how common is it to have this type of snow in December. Keep in mind for many of us on the coast, water temperatures are still near 50 which really makes it difficult to produce a major snow. That said, if the set up is right, which it is, it can and has happened.
In Boston, you have to go back to 2010 the last time we had over a foot of snow in the city during the month of December.
Now for Worcester that stat is less impressive. Being inland it’s a lot easier to get a foot of snow in December, let alone some elevation effects.