Pop-Up Shower Here… Update on Irma

A cool, yet bright start to the day yields to building clouds and the potential for a couple of pop-up afternoon showers. About 40% of us will catch one, and with such chilly air aloft, one or two of these showers may even contain some pea-sized hail. Highs top off in the mid to upper 60s.  Sunday is similar, with a slightly lower shower chance, about 20%.

Next week looks rather quiet and warmer with highs near 80 Monday – Wednesday and back into the mid 70s late week.

Latest on Irma… (Some of it is from JR’s blog last night)

As of Saturday morning, it looks like she will make landfall as a strong Category 4 storm….the last time a Cat-4 made landfall in Florida was Hurricane Charlie in 2004. Other notable hurricanes to make landfall in the sunshine state are:

In terms of power & energy, this storm will rival Andrew of 1992. The building codes of South Florida were brought up significantly after Andrew’s destruction (able to withstand 130 mph winds). Those codes will be put to the test this weekend. Here is the forecast track from the National Hurricane Center:

Wind gusts likely in excess of 120 – 140 mph at times. So that’s the wind concern, and the storm surge–a combination of both strong winds and the extremely low air pressure within the storm creating a buldge of the sea surface…which then moves ashore…is likely to be devastating. Here is the storm surge forecast:

Rain totals will run 8-15″ with locally up to 20″. This creates flash flooding concerns as well. In Southwest Florida, many drainage areas go back to the canals and into the ocean, with a storm surge, the rain won’t be able to drain out, adding to the flooding woes, especially near the coast.  If you have friends or family there that have been ask to evacuate, encourage them to do so. This is a very dangerous situation that will also extend up into the Tampa area.  Miami escaped the worst, but gusts near hurricane force are still likely there.

Have a good weekend folks… thoughts and prayers with our Florida friends and family.

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