Slowly Improving… Update on Matthew

Plenty of clouds and plenty of damp weather over the weekend, although Sunday wasn’t as wet as Saturday for most. The rain was needed, and added up quite a bit across Southeast Mass with 1-3″ of water across that area. Near Boston, it was around an 1″ and northwest of 128, the amounts were lighter.

Anyhow, we start to break the pattern a bit today as milder air, mid 60s coast, low 70s inland prevail this afternoon. With enough moisture and instability, a few pop up showers, rumbles of thunder are possible this afternoon. The most likely locations for that will be outside 495 with a mainly dry afternoon for much of eastern Mass. With lots of cold air aloft, a few of those inland showers/storm could produce some small hail.

A renewed batch of low level moisture arrives late tonight and early tomorrow with more patchy fog, low clouds and spotty drizzle to kick off Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon, some sun returns and that sun will hold steady into the end of the week as highs trend back toward 70 from Wednesday to Friday.

Of course, all eyes will then turn to what Matthew does. As of the 5am update from the National Hurricane, Matthew is a Category 4 hurricane with winds sustained at 130mph. It’s expected that Matthew passes close to or over western Haiti and eastern Cuba tomorrow. In addition to the winds, the rain is also a major concern, especially over the Dominican and Haiti as topical moisture being forced up the mountainous terrain of the Island of Hispaniola will likely force out locally 2 feet+ of rain and the potential of mudslides.

By mid to late week, Matthew slowly churns across the Bahamas and nears the Carolina Coastline. The question thereafter: Does it move fast enough to slide up the east coast and pass close to New England? Or, does it get pinned near the Carolina coast, then slide northeast out to sea, and well south of us, thanks to an incoming cold front and high pressure building in behind it. It’s too early to say either way, but something to certainly keep an eye on though.