Our next storm is knocking on our door. While the Midwest is dealing with blizzard conditions, there is no winter weather component to this storm for us. We will tap into the cold air AFTER the storm but we have no threat of snow or ice here in southern New England. In fact even northern New England will start as snow but quickly flip over to rain for the duration of the storm. We’ll have a lot of wind and a lot of rain coming our way over the next 24 hours. I’ll break down each threat individually below.
STRONG WIND:
Wind is probably our biggest threat with this storm. You’ll notice the wind picking up this evening but once we get past midnight things will really get rocking. We will likely see power outages and tree damage with this one, especially at the coast line. Below is time line of wind gusts for Boston and Worcester. You’ll notice two wind peaks, one in the morning tomorrow and one in the afternoon. The initial push of wind tomorrow morning is stronger at the coast (southeast wind) than inland. However as the cold front passes, wind will turn to the southwest and the wind will pick up for EVERYBODY.
Peak wind gusts during the storm will be strongest on the coast line. The strongest wind on the coast line will come with the morning push of wind while the strongest gusts inland will come with the afternoon push. Keep in mind these are PEAK wind gusts and won’t spend several hours here.
While we won’t spend hours with wind gusts at this level, it is enough (even if brief) to take down trees and power lines.
The most likely area for tree damage and power outages will be on the coast line where the wind is strongest but it’s still possible west of the 95 corridor as well. Expect scattered power outages along and east of 95 and isolated power outages west of there. If you have a generator it’s probably a good idea to get that out tonight and ready to go should you need it. And it goes without saying, take those Christmas inflatables down unless you want to retrieve them from your neighbor’s tree.
We have a high wind warning issued for everyone inside of 495 for the likelihood of power outages and damage. Outside of 495 a wind advisory is issued for wind that isn’t quite as strong but still enough to do produce some pockets of damage.
SOAKING RAIN:
While wind is taking the headline for this storm, we shouldn’t sleep on the rain aspect either. Make sure your sump pumps are working and storm drains are cleared because a lot of water is about to fall in the next 24 hours. Widespread rain amounts will fall somewhere between 1.5″ and 2.5″. Rain will start this evening and wrap up around sunset tomorrow (4pm ish). Below is storm total rain estimates. WOW!
COASTAL FLOODING:
We’ve been lucky with our last few storms that the coastal flooding threat and beach erosion risk has been pretty low. Unfortunately that’s not the case with this storm. Southeast winds will batter the coast line. And along with high tide tomorrow morning, will lead to minor to moderate coastal flooding along the shore line. Watch for 1-3 feet of inundation on shore roads and low lying areas. High tide tomorrow is between 10-11am depending on your exact location. Give yourself a buffer of a few hours on either side of high tide for the coastal flooding threat — so a window of 9am to noon Friday.
SNOW:
Wait! What?! You said no winter component! Yes, yes I did. But our snow risk is actually AFTER the storm moves through. You’ve heard us use the term “Ocean Effect Snow Showers” before but usually it’s focused along the South Shore on a northeast wind. This time, however, the cold air that is chasing this storm is cold enough that as is moves over the warmer Atlantic waters, will produce Ocean Effect Snow Showers for the Cape and Islands. Watch for this Friday night and into Saturday morning. In fact, while most of us has again scrapped our hopes of a White Christmas, it may just happen across the Islands of all places! An official White Christmas is 1″ of snow on the ground at 7am on Christmas morning. And any snow that does fall Friday night and Saturday morning won’t have a risk of melting as the cold air stays in place through Christmas.
BITTER COLD:
The cold air behind this system is no joke! Wind chills in Wyoming fell to -70°! No, that’s not a typo. Temperatures in the Midwest today struggled to hit 0° and wind chills were double digits below zero. That cold air is coming here, but don’t worry it will moderate quite a bit. That said, even if it moderates a bit, it’s still going to be a very cold Christmas in New England.
As I mentioned as the cold air slides east it will warm a bit. The good news is these bitter cold air masses are big strong areas of high pressure and high pressure means quiet weather. So while Christmas will be cold, once we get behind Friday’s storm the forecast is quiet — good news for anyone with travel plans this weekend. High temperatures for both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day will climb to the 20s with wind chills ranging from 5 to 15°. Bundle up!
