Below is the latest track from the National Hurricane Center this morning. Jose is a hurricane this morning with winds of 80mph, and a lower pressure than yesterday, at 973mb. Sometimes, lower pressures are followed by increasing wind speeds. We’ll see if that happens. Jose will be over warm waters the next couple of days, so some strengthening is possible, although, stronger winds aloft (wind shear) may limited that chance. Once Jose gets north of the Gulf Stream, water temps south of our coast line are cool, in fact, cooler than average. That’ll weaken Jose beginning late Tuesday.
While forecast models do wobble and weave from time to time (always do), the general thinking hasn’t changed a whole lot for us. Think of this as a Fall nor’easter in terms of feel and wind direction and bands of rain. Of course, not all nor’easter are made the same, and the difference from feeling the impacts of a modest one vs. a nasty one, will be determined by the exact track Jose takes. Farther south in that cone, it’s a lower impact storm, farther north, the wind/rain #s go up. The speed will also matter, as a slow storm that passes closer would produce higher rain totals too.
As a starting point, let’s say the track is near the benchmark (southeast of Nantucket where many nor’easters track). Rain would be heaviest in southeast Mass, especially across the Cape and taper off to the northwest. Rain would begin Tuesday morning for all, and the heaviest would be Tuesday night/Wednesday, especially across the Cape. Winds increase Tuesday afternoon and peak Wednesday, perhaps gusting past 50mph along the south coast/Cape and Islands.
Combine the wind with astronomical high tides, beach erosion and coastal flooding also becomes a concern. The extent of the flooding and intensity of the wind and rain will depend on the exact track. Tides Tuesday afternoon – Thursday are likely to be influenced by the northeast to north winds.
We’ll keep you updated on air and online, have a good Sunday.
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