BOSTON (WHDH) - Hopefully you didn’t make the same mistake a friend of mine almost made.  About 10 days ago, a friend of mine explained to me that she was thinking about canceling the big plans she had for today because a certain weather app on her phone predicted a rainy day.  She asked me if that was a good idea.  My answer was a resounding “NO!!!!”

There are countless sources of weather information available online and through your smart phone.  Some are great and some are useless.  There are some that offer detailed forecasts out to 90 days and that’s just ridiculous.  The American Meteorological Society has a statement that describes the current state of weather forecasting.  I’ll spare you the trouble of reading the whole thing and just point out the bottom-line…detailed forecasts beyond 8 days are RARELY accurate.  AT BEST…at that time range you might be able to see that the weather pattern is conducive to above normal or below normal conditions in general over a large area.  In other words, you might be able to tell that that the weather will generally be wetter than normal, or cooler than normal for New England, but you won’t be able to predict exactly when and where it will rain or exactly what the temperature will be in each town more than 8 days in advance.  As you have no doubt noticed, there are times we can’t be that accurate even just 2 days in advance.  (Insert joke about meteorologists here.)

That is exactly what I explained to my friend.  I told her that the weather would probably change to a wetter, cooler pattern this weekend, but there was no way of knowing exactly when it would rain 10 days in advance.  I told her that the rain could come in the middle of the night and the daytime hours could be clear and she would have wasted a great opportunity to enjoy the beautiful weather.  I convinced her to wait until the week before to make a decision.  Good thing, because that is exactly what happened.

Full disclosure…I’m part of a team that is working on an updated set of guidelines for the American Meteorological Society that will hopefully help those seeking weather information online or through their smart phone know what to look for and know what to avoid.  So, obviously this subject is a pet project of mine.  I’ll step off of my soapbox now and tell you what you need to know about the weather…

There is a chance of rain late Saturday evening, but the daytime will be beautiful!  If you’ve got date-night plans, the rain should hold off until after dinnertime, but you might get wet while coming home from a late night movie.  The rain will be out of the area by dawn on Sunday.  However, Sunday won’t be as nice.  Sunday will be mainly cloudy, breezy, and in some spots about 20 degrees cooler!!  The atmosphere will be very unstable, so a pop-up, quick moving shower can’t be ruled out but most of us will stay dry.  Monday will also be much cooler than normal with a mixture of clouds and sun.  Don’t worry, this cooler, unsettled weather pattern won’t last as long as it did the last time.  We return to a warmer, drier pattern by mid-week.

Enjoy your Saturday!!!

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