By now you’ve probably heard that some big winter weather is on the way for the weekend. Both the bitter cold and significant snow are setting their sights on New England this weekend. But before we get to the weekend, we have some brief snow showers on the way later this evening. This round of snow isn’t significant, only dropping a coating to inch in some spots, but you might have to give your car a quick brush tomorrow morning.
These snow showers are actually on a warm front that will move through overnight. So while we spend most of the day in the 20s today, we’ll keep our temperatures climbing overnight, so today’s actual high temperature will be at midnight — somewhere around 32°. The temperatures will keep on climbing into the day tomorrow and give us a pretty nice day on Thursday. We’ll have partly cloudy skies and temperatures that make it back to the lower 40s. That’s pretty nice for January, when our average high temperature is now just 36°. As quick as the warmer air arrives, it will move out. An arctic front will move through on Friday, dropping our temperatures, kicking up the wind, and producing a few passing snow showers through the day. The bigger impacts from this arctic front will be felt Friday night and Saturday.
Saturday morning, air temperatures will drop to near zero, with wind chills anywhere from -10 to -20°. While we have a lot of sun on Saturday it’s absolutely deceiving. Afternoon highs will only make it to 14° with wind chills holding near zero in the afternoon. If Boston were to stay below 15° on Saturday, it will be the coldest day we’ve had in over 7 years! The last time we were this cold (or colder) was January 21, 2019! The cold will stick around for Sunday with what looks to be increasingly likely of a significant winter storm.
We aren’t alone in the cold that’s on the way for the weekend. That cold will plunge south all the way to the panhandle of Texas and into the Mid South. On the edge of that cold air is a significant winter storm that’s developing across the southern United States. While a significant snowfall is on the way for a lot of cities and towns (many that aren’t used to significant snow) like Kentucky, Oklahoma and northern Arkansas, it’s the ice that will be more crippling down south. A major ice storm will impact areas from Dallas to Nashville, and eventually to the Carolinas.
We’re not alone in this storm, as many big cities and travel hubs will be impacted on Sunday. We’re talking several inches of snow that eventually turns to ice in DC and Philly. Several inches of snow in New York City and as far north as here in Boston. This storm as a lot going for it as it arrives in New England. With its origins across the south, it is loaded up with moisture and bring that moisture to the Northeast. That would be a good snowfall on its own, but with the bitter cold air, it has the potential to push its impacts even further.
In a typical winter storm (liken it to an average, say), snow falls roughly at a 10:1 ratio. That’s often the case with temperatures near freezing. What that means is 1″ of rain can produce 10″ of snow. The warmer the air, the lower the ratio. So if the temperature was 35°, that same storm may produce snow at a 5:1 ratio, meaning that same 1″ of rain can only produce 5″ of snow.
But here’s the flip side. The bitter cold air can drive those snow ratios up significantly. With temperatures in the teens and near zero, that snow to liquid ratio might be 20 or 25:1. Reverse the thinking, and that means that same 1″ of rain could produce 20 or 25″ of snow! That’s the incredibly light and fluffy snow that is easy to move, but stacks up FAST.
