The clouds rolled in today, making for a very gray day and now the precipitation will follow. If you look at the 7Weather Interactive Radar, it *LOOKS* like the rain and snow will start any minute. But the storm has a ton of dry air to overcome so it’ll take some time before the precipitation starts here in southern New England. Unfortunately for snow lovers, this is not the storm for you. An east wind will pull in the “warm” ocean air and cut out the snow potential for most of us. Inside of 495 expect rain the entire storm. It may end early Saturday morning as a few rogue snowflakes or a brief snow shower but it’s all about the rain. Outside of 495 it’ll be back and forth between rain and snow, but even there it’s probably more rain than snow and thus cutting down on totals. The highest elevations will hold onto the snow for all or most of the event so that’s where the more significant accumulations will occur.
We’ll start with the snow map since that’s what most people are interested in. This is a good snow for the elevations and that includes the Monadnock Region. There, the Berkshires, and of course the Whites and Greens are in line for a significant snow. But numbers will come down fast as you lose elevation. And by the time you get down Route 2 to Fitchburg and Leominster you’ll be down to about an inch.
To get a better look at elevation, here is our snow map placed on top of a topographic (terrain) map. You can see the towns where elevation starts to climb.
Locally, we have a winter weather advisory in effect for Northern Worcester County and Rockingham County in New Hampshire (excluding the Sea Coast). The winter weather advisory is less about high snow accumulations and more about slow and difficult travel as the rain and snow flip back and forth and lead to slushy coatings on the roadways. The elevations, where more snow is expected, are upgraded to a winter storm warning. Not only for a lot of snow, but a heavy wet snow. Travel here could be difficult to near impossible Friday and Saturday. Notice it extends all the way into Northern New England. Ski County is going to make out great with this storm. In fact many of the peaks there are expecting at least a foot of snow.
The graphic below aims to highlight areas most impacted by the snow. Look how much the impact changes from “limited” impacts in Worcester County to “major” and even pockets of “extreme” in the White and Green Mountains. So while Ski Country is going to get a lot of snow and make for great skiing over the next few days, getting there could be a real struggle and something to really consider if you were planning on driving to go skiing either Friday or Saturday.
While the snow is the big story for Northern New England, for Southern New England it’s more about the rain and wind. We’ll see a good amount of rain with this system as it rolls through. Widespread numbers will range somewhere between 1 and 2″. The general trend looks to be heavier (closer to 2″) north of Boston and lighter (closer to 1″) south of Boston. Notice the bullseye over the Monadnocks and Berkshires — that isn’t heavy rain in addition to snow. The model can only digest how much water will fall and doesn’t differentiate between the rain and snow. So while that’s a lot of water over the Monadnock Region and Berkshires, all or most of that water will fall as snow.
And this isn’t a pleasant rain. Especially along the coast line. It will be a wind driven rain. Wind for much of the day on Friday will gust between 35-45 mph and could even see a few random gusts to 50 mph. So it’s a wind driven rain. We have a wind advisory in effect for Friday into early Friday night.
Friday night the storm begins to exit and overnight Friday into early Saturday will pull in cold air behind it and change the last little push over to snow for everyone– all the way to the coastline. The last push of snow showers won’t do much in addition to what falls through much of the day Friday. Maybe a coating to an inch outside of 495 and a coating on nonpaved surfaces inside of 495.