Ahh yes, Winter Outlook time…
How much snow are we getting this winter, JR?!
A song as old as rhyme, tale as old as time. Alright, let’s get to this beastly blog.
Before looking ahead, a quick review of last winter’s outlook, shall we?

Not too shabby, missed pretty low on Nashua and Taunton was much more than my forecast(Temps did finish mild as advertised but most only really care about the snow grade). Fast-forward to the present. Here is what I think our winter will offer:

It’ll be another La Nina winter and they typically feature a storm track across New England. In southern New England that can mean an overall mild winter with slightly below normal snowfall. In a typical La Nina, a lot of the cold and snow occurs early in winter rather than late winter.
Understand that a mild winter in New England does not mean golfing and beach days, rather, the mild days will likely outnumber the cold days between December and March (Yes, you can, and still do get Bitter Blasts & Arctic Assaults even within a mild winter).

Also, a storm track like the one shown means Messy Mix type storms are in play (similar to the minor event we just had earlier this week—-November 15th). Messy Mix storms tend to limit seasonal snowfall for southern New England, especially for coastal communities. Farther north and inland, western & northern New England, can do quite well with snow so if you like to ski, should be a good for skiing!
OK, so how did I arrive at this?

Lol, can you imagine?
Like always, I start with the state of the tropical Pacific Ocean temps (El Nino Southern Oscillation or ENSO). We know that the oceans do interact with the atmosphere and so knowing ocean temperature distribution anomalies can give us clues to how the atmosphere will respond.

What jumps off the map is a lot of warm colors (yes the oceans are warm these days) but also a noticeable area of cool colors in the equatorial Pacific. That is a signal for La Nina (El Nino’s sister). We’ve touched on this in past Winter Outlooks but here is how La Nina’s affect the global winter patterns:

When looking at this upcoming winter, it looks like we’ll hold onto La Nina conditions across the equatorial Pacific throughout winter as shown by the computer models.

A La Nina winter….Nothing we haven’t experienced before right? Correct! Sort of. This upcoming winter will be our 3rd consecutive La Nina winter and that is rare territory! Since 1900, there has only been 5 winters like this one..three consecutive La Nina Winters (which I’ll reference as a triple-dip La Nina). Those winters were:
1910/11
1917/18
1956/57
1975/76
2000/01
So let’s see what those prior triple-dip La Nina’s produced for snowfall & temperature (for both Boston and Worcester)


The takeaway from those graphics are for a cold winter and near to slightly below normal snow. OK but lets see what a couple of the computer models say for the winter:


They suggest a mild winter for southern New England (a warm winter for the south—book those winter flights to Florida!). I do think with the globe much warmer now than in the early part of the 20th century you probably have to rely less on the past winters (analogs) and more on the computer models when building a winter outlook as the past winters climate (especially those winters of 1910-11 and 1917-18 winters) are indeed different than today’s background climate state. You can certainly see our winters have been warming since the early part of the 20th century by looking at winter temperature data from the Blue Hill observatory:

I chose Blue Hill Observatory rather than Boston because Boston climate data collection site has varied through its early history (since 1872) until finally settling on a constant location (Logan Airport) since 1936. Also, Boston has grown as a city the past 200 years and urbanization of a city (more buildings, parking lots, roads) can skew temperature data upward. Blue Hill hasn’t had that happen so the temperature data (rise or fall) would be more atmospherically induced rather than infrastructural induced.
Not all is lost snow lovers. When you look at snowfall trends for Blue Hill observatory you also notice an upward trend.

You can see the signal for Boston snow data as well

I think the takeaway from these charts is not to say climate change means more snow every winter but rather, a warmer atmosphere can hold more water and so snowstorms are (currently) capable of producing some really big snow totals even tho we are seeing fewer snowstorms now versus 150 years ago. When It snows nowadays..it really snows!! That is a wildcard when forecasting a mild winter, that just 2 or three storms can get you pretty close to our seasonal snow average.
And with all that in mind, here is the graphic you’ve been wanting to see since the opening sentence…..seasonal snow forecast!

There ya have it! Winter doing winter things once again.
Enjoy the journey, I hope you enjoyed the reading! ;o) ~JR