Welcome to our first real snow of the season! Well… for some of us. Actually, most of us are in line for a cold rainstorm tomorrow rather than the winter wonderland you might be expecting and hoping for. While it’s cold outside, it’s just not cold enough for snow. As you gain elevation, that colder air is easier to lock in place tomorrow and that’s where you’ll end up with a fresh blanket of snow!
The big question on everybody’s mind is how much snow? So, I won’t bury the lead and give you the snow map out the gates. However, please keep reading because this is a different storm for everybody, and NOBODY is going to wake up to these numbers tomorrow morning, or even have close to the numbers by noon tomorrow. Notice the tight gradient where it quickly goes from 4-7″ down to just a coating or 1/2″. That’s because so much of this storm depends on elevation. As you lose elevation, you’re going to lose snow amounts fast.
Out the door tomorrow morning you’ll have clouds and maybe a flurry or a sprinkle. The storm is going to take it’s time getting going so no matter where you are, I don’t expect any issues with the commute tomorrow morning. On the flipside, I expect the commute tomorrow afternoon/tomorrow evening to be a problem for everyone. Whether that’s rain or snow, it’s going to be slow. The snow will be a heavy, wet, and pasty snow, and the rain will be steady and at times pretty heavy. So even without snow, it’ll be enough that traffic will be at a crawl, especially in and out of Boston.
Like I said, the rain will be heavy at times tomorrow afternoon and evening. Rainfall amounts, for those that see rain (or mostly rain), will end up 1-2″. Whether it’s rain or snow, the storm will ramp up and favor the afternoon and evening tomorrow. Here’s a step through of future radar tomorrow:
8am Morning Commute: A sprinkle or flurry, no issues on the roads.
Noon: Storm has ramped up. Rain and snow have filled in and remain steady and heavy for several hours. Notice the sharp contrast from rain to snow. That rain/snow line will likely hold there through most of the day tomorrow. Where it’s snow, it’s a heavy and wet snow. It will cling to things and start to cover the roads. Where it’s rain, it will stay as rain for most of the event. If you reference the snow map above, specifically the white shaded area, your chance at any snow won’t come until the later evening as the storm exits.
5pm Evening Commute: This is where the problem lies tomorrow. Not only is it raining and snowing at the time of the commute, it will have been snowing and raining for several hours leading up to this. There’s very little movement in that rain/snow line so where it’s rain it really stays as rain most of the day, and where it’s snow is stays as snow through most of the day.
9pm Later Evening: By later in the evening, the storm will begin to wind itself down. As this happens, and the storm exits, it will pull colder air in behind it and that’s when the rain/snow line will collapse closer to the water. Even then, this isn’t going to give you that winter wonderland… and after raining all day, it likely won’t even stick to the roads. More likely, you may end up with a coating to an inch or so on your grass, the tops of your hedges, your car windshield, etc. The storm is largely done by 11pm/midnight tomorrow with the potential of a few flurries lingering until 5 or 6am Wednesday. But these flurries won’t be anything to add to the accumulations, or cause Wednesday morning issues.
Of course since we’re talking snow, tomorrow must be cold. And it is. For those that have snow, it’s of course cold enough for snow. For those that’s rain, you’ll get to deal with temperatures that are just a bit too warm for snow, and instead will see us a not-so-pleasant cold rain. Thankfully this storm isn’t bringing much for wind, so at least it’s not a wind-driven, cold rain.
On the backside of this storm, cold is the theme of the forecast. The next five days (and honestly, all seven in the seven-day forecast) are quite cold — feeling more like January than early December.
