When we put this warmup in context with others (in recent years) in November, it almost falls into line. In both 2013 and 2011 the month got off to an unusually warm start. 70s popped up in early 2013 and upper 60s were around in the middle of 2011.
What does that mean for the winter forecast?
Again, nothing. Although I will say it holds a bit more weight than any temperature trend in October. Reason being, as we get deeper into the cold season, trends start to emerge. And yes, that means the warmer we stay into November, the more the first half of winter will be warm.
But we all know from living here that the winter season has many faces. It’s for that reason I hate doing winter forecasts. (Who saw us getting record snowfall in the second half of the winter last year?) I do like to do monthly forecasts, however. And half-season forecasts. To me, the winter has two parts, what you start with, and what you finish with. There always seems to be a major shift in the pattern 1/3 or 1/2 the way through the winter. If you follow the weather closely, you’ll know what I mean.
So back to the warmth this week. With clouds entering the picture, we’re not as bright over the next few days. Humidity is the culprit here. Dew points will rise to near record levels (low/mid 60s) on Friday, feeding the low clouds and overnight fog.Gusty winds on Friday should be enough to scour out some of the clouds and pave the way for records in some spots.
Cooler this weekend, but not dramatically so until Sunday. It’s the only day that stand out as "cold" in the next 7-10 days.
Pete